Overnight, LME lead opened at $2,032.5/mt, briefly touched a low of $2,022/mt during the Asian session, and then rebounded. Due to a weaker US dollar index, shorts reduced their positions during the European session, causing LME lead to fluctuate upward, reaching a high of $2,090.5/mt, and finally closing at $2,082.5/mt, up 2.49%.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2410 contract opened at 16,610 yuan/mt, briefly touched a low of 16,560 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, and then rebounded, boosted by LME lead, reaching a high of 16,705 yuan/mt. It then fluctuated around 16,660 yuan/mt and closed at 16,675 yuan/mt, up 1.65%.
Macro-wise, the initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending September 14 recorded 219,000, the lowest since the week ending May 18, 2024. The offshore yuan rose to around 7.06 against the US dollar.
On the spot fundamentals, the first working day after the Mid-Autumn Festival saw the delivery of the SHFE lead 2409 contract. Due to the delivery factors of holders, the arrival of lead ingots in social warehouses increased during the holiday, pushing the overall inventory level to a one-month high. Meanwhile, during the Mid-Autumn Festival, many lead smelters continued production as usual, while downstream enterprises generally took 1-2 days off, leading to a temporary lack of lead consumption and a continuous rise in lead ingot inventory. Additionally, the recent simultaneous decline in supply and demand for lead ingots resulted in a sluggish spot market. For the future trend of lead prices, attention should be paid to the extent of downstream stocking before the National Day holiday.
