Support from Fundamentals is Strong, Aluminum Prices Expected to Consolidate at Highs in the Short Term [SMM Aluminum Morning Comment]

SMM, Sep 18: On the previous trading day, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2410 contract opened at 19,775 yuan/mt, reached a high of 19,830 yuan/mt, a low of 19,720 yuan/mt, and closed at 19,745 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous closing price. LME aluminum opened at $2,517/mt, hit a high of $2,539.5/mt, a low of $2,505.5/mt, and closed at $2,506.5/mt, down $8.5/mt, a decrease of 0.34%.
Summary: On the macro front, the US Fed will announce its rate decision on Wednesday afternoon Eastern Time, with a rate cut already a certainty, but there is still disagreement in the market about the extent of the rate cut. On the fundamentals side, domestic aluminum supply is expected to remain stable in the short term, while overseas production cuts are occurring, and future supply is gradually peaking. On the demand side, the market is gradually entering the peak consumption season, with aluminum demand performing well and aluminum social inventory decreasing significantly. With the fundamentals shifting to strong support, aluminum prices are expected to consolidate strongly amid strong fundamentals and macro uncertainties.