Stainless Steel Prices Plummeted Before the Holiday, How Will They Perform Post-Holiday? [SMM Analysis]

This week, the SS contract fluctuated downward, maintaining an overall weak trend. As of the close on September 13, the price was 13,350 yuan/mt, down 115 yuan/mt WoW. The futures market hit a new low of 13,060 yuan/mt on Wednesday, followed by a recovery, but fell again by Friday.

On one hand, the details of the US Fed's rate cut remain unclear, and both the August domestic manufacturing PMI and CPI data were below expectations. With internal and external factors interfering, the economic pressure in Q3 was significant. Downstream enterprises were pessimistic, and sectors like ferrous metals and real estate continued to decline, leading to reduced procurement in September and insufficient futures rebound.

From a fundamental perspective, overall stainless steel inventory continued to decrease slightly this week, down 0.74% WoW, with 300 series cold-rolled stainless steel inventory down 1.14%. Warehouse warrant inventory decreased by 5,520 mt, with recent arrivals mainly in hot-rolled stainless steel, while cold-rolled stainless steel arrivals were fewer. During the previous price stabilization period, end-users slightly released procurement demand. After futures prices stabilized on Wednesday, spot prices rebounded slightly, with the price spread recovering to 100-150 yuan/mt. Overall, downstream demand remained weak, and steel mills frequently adjusted their prices due to intense market competition, with significant production pressure in September. Although a large steel mill in South China announced production cuts recently, the reduction was limited and mainly in 200 series stainless steel, and a large amount of in-transit resources is expected to arrive after the Mid-Autumn Festival.

In summary, after the gradual digestion of macro factors, the SS contract experienced an oversold rebound, but the overall fundamentals remained weak, and the rebound strength was insufficient. Future developments will depend on the confirmation of the US Fed's rate cut basis points, and an improved macro environment may bring rebound opportunities.