US Dollar Index Declined, Copper Prices Rose Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

LME copper opened at $9,247.5/mt overnight, quickly reached a high of $9,260/mt in early trading, then fell to an intraday low of $9,172.5/mt, and finally fluctuated rangebound to close at $9,207.5/mt, up 0.76%. Trading volume was 19,000 lots, and open interest was 272,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper 2410 contract opened at 74,030 yuan/mt overnight, hit 74,130 yuan/mt in early trading, then fluctuated downward to an intraday low of 73,720 yuan/mt before rebounding, and finally closed at 74,010 yuan/mt, up 0.8%. Trading volume was 31,000 lots, and open interest was 151,000 lots. Macro aspect, the latest U.S. PPI data was mixed. The U.S. PPI and core PPI month-on-month rates were 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, both exceeding expectations but with previous values revised lower. Initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose moderately to 230,000 last week. Interest rate futures indicate a 39% probability that the US Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points next week. The US dollar index declined, benefiting copper prices. Additionally, Hurricane Francine disrupted U.S. oil production, boosting international oil prices and subsequently leading to higher copper prices. Fundamentally, as copper prices rose yesterday, downstream buyers were largely cautious, primarily restocking as needed, which led to a decrease in demand. However, according to SMM statistics, inventories significantly decreased during the week. As of Thursday, September 12, copper stocks in major regions across China fell by 14,000 mt WoW to 217,000 mt, marking a decrease of 39,000 mt compared to last Thursday. This represents the 10th consecutive week of destocking, with the destocking speed accelerating. The inventory set a new post-Chinese New Year low. Stocks declined in all regions compared to Monday and stood 116,000 mt higher than 100,000 mt in the same period last year. Price-wise, copper prices are expected to fluctuate upward today.