The fundamentals have turned positive, and aluminum prices may fluctuate upward. [SMM Aluminum Morning Comment]

SMM, Sep 12: Overnight, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2410 contract opened at 19,450 yuan/mt, reached a high of 19,495 yuan/mt, a low of 19,385 yuan/mt, and closed at 19,465 yuan/mt, up by 15 yuan/mt, an increase of 0.08%. On Wednesday, LME aluminum opened at $2,342/mt, reached a high of $2,379.5/mt, a low of $2,337/mt, and closed at $2,379.5/mt, up by $37.5/mt, an increase of 1.60%.
Summary: On the macro side, a US Fed rate cut in September is almost certain. China continues to stimulate consumption. There are new developments in the hot war situation. On the fundamentals side, there has been a reduction in overseas supply, the demand is beginning to recover with the arrival of the peak season for consumption, and social inventory is starting to deplete. In the short term, aluminum prices may fluctuate upward driven by fundamentals. However, the sustainability of consumption recovery and changes in supply chain capacity need to be closely monitored.