US PCE Index Basically in Line with Expectations, LME Zinc Surges and Falls Back [SMM Zinc Morning Comment]

SMM, Sep 2: Last Friday, the US July PCE data was basically in line with expectations; OPEC+ may gradually increase oil production as planned starting in October; large-scale protests erupted in Israel calling for a ceasefire; Japan continues to face a "rice shortage" in many areas, with the government refusing to release reserve rice; the US again delayed the final decision on tariffs related to Chinese goods; NBS: manufacturing PMI dropped back slightly; PBOC: net bond purchases in August 2024 amounted to 100 billion yuan; offshore yuan against the dollar broke through the 7.08 mark.
Last Friday, LME zinc opened at $2,880/mt, briefly fell to $2,876.5/mt at the beginning of the session, then rose as shorts reduced positions, reaching a high of $2,929.5/mt during European trading hours. However, due to insufficient upward momentum, LME zinc fell back, fluctuating around $2,890/mt during the night session, and finally closed up at $2,899.5/mt, an increase of $14/mt or 0.49%. Trading volume decreased to 8,944 lots, and open interest decreased by 3,270 lots to 220,000 lots. Last Friday, LME zinc recorded a bullish candlestick, with the 10-day moving average providing support below and the 5-day moving average forming resistance above. LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,550 mt to 244,775 mt, a drop of 0.63%. The US July PCE data was basically in line with expectations, indicating strong US economic data, slightly cooling rate cut expectations, and causing LME zinc to shift lower.
Last Friday, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2410 contract opened at 24,045 yuan/mt, fluctuated near the daily moving average at the beginning of the session, then rose quickly as shorts reduced positions, reaching a high of 24,065 yuan/mt. Later, as shorts reduced positions again, SHFE zinc shifted lower, fluctuating around 23,900 yuan/mt, and briefly fell to 23,890 yuan/mt, finally closing down at 23,935 yuan/mt, a decrease of 115 yuan/mt or 0.48%. Trading volume decreased to 84,593 lots, and open interest decreased by 1,431 lots to 117,000 lots. Last Friday, the most-traded SHFE zinc contract recorded a bearish candlestick, with the MACD bullish candlestick narrowing. Domestic manufacturing PMI dropped back slightly, and the supply-demand pattern remained weak, but concerns about supply-side production cuts still supported zinc prices, which mainly fluctuated and consolidated.