【SMM Analysis】 Signs of a Rebound? Can Lithium Carbonate Turn the Decline into a Rise

This week (2024.08.19-2024.08.23), the decline in lithium carbonate spot prices slowed down. The SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate index price fell from 74,629 yuan/mt to 74,152 yuan/mt, a decrease of 477 yuan/mt. The low range of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose from 71,800 yuan/mt to 72,000 yuan/mt, while the high range fell from 77,600 yuan/mt to 76,500 yuan/mt. The average price dropped from 74,700 yuan/mt to 74,250 yuan/mt, a decrease of 450 yuan/mt. The low range of industrial-grade lithium carbonate fell from 69,300 yuan/mt to 69,350 yuan/mt, the high range fell from 70,200 yuan/mt to 70,000 yuan/mt, and the average price fell from 69,750 yuan/mt to 69,675 yuan/mt, a decrease of 75 yuan/mt. From this week's lithium carbonate price trend, the decline has slowed down.

Although material plants and battery cell manufacturers are gradually entering the peak season preparation phase with significant production increases, most of the additional lithium carbonate demand is being offset by customer supply, resulting in relatively weak spot purchases, mainly driven by just-in-time needs. Upstream lithium salt plants, having experienced a prolonged price decline, are extremely pessimistic about shipments and strongly inclined to hold prices. Currently, traders are more active in the lithium carbonate spot and futures markets. Some material plants bought at low prices when lithium carbonate prices were at low levels last week. However, with the price rebound this week, some lithium salt plants are even more inclined to hold prices, and material plants are making fewer purchases. From the supply and demand fundamentals, the oversupply situation of lithium carbonate is unlikely to reverse in the short term, and prices are expected to remain weak. However, fluctuations in futures prices may transmit some sentiment signals to the spot market. Whether lithium carbonate can see a price rebound will depend more on the actual supply and demand fundamentals.