July Zinc Concentrate Imports Exceed Expectations with Significant Increases from Australia and Peru [SMM Analysis]

According to the latest customs data, in July 2024, zinc concentrate imports reached 375,400 mt, up 39.27% MoM (105,800 mt) but down 4.71% YoY. From January to July, the cumulative zinc concentrate imports totaled 2.0905 million mt, down 21.76% YoY.

By country, in July 2024, the top three import source countries: Australia (79,400 mt, 21.16%), Peru (74,100 mt, 19.74%), and Bolivia (35,800 mt, 9.54%). MoM, significant increases were observed from Australia, Peru, Bolivia, Kazakhstan, and Russia, while imports from South Africa, Eritrea, and Mexico decreased to varying degrees.

SMM believes the substantial increase in July zinc concentrate imports is due to the following reasons:
1. Supported by the SHFE/LME price ratio, the zinc ore import window remained open, leading to continuous inflows of overseas zinc concentrate.
2. Domestic ore TCs continued to decline, making domestic ore less competitive in price. With the ongoing shortage of domestic ore, smelters increased their procurement of imported ore.

In July, the SHFE/LME price ratio continued to rise, leading to an increase in the number of offers from some traders. Domestic smelters continued to purchase imported ore to prepare for Q3 and Q4, and previously ordered imported ore began arriving at ports. It is expected that zinc ore imports will remain high in August.