Market Concerns Resurfaced, Copper Prices Fell Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

LME copper opened at $9,262.5/mt overnight, initially reaching a high of $9,286.5/mt. It then fluctuated downward, hitting a low of $9,170/mt by the end of the session and finally closing at $9,181.5/mt, down 0.85%. Trading volume reached 18,000 lots, and open interest was 282,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper 2409 contract opened at 74,050 yuan/mt, initially reaching a high of 74,120 yuan/mt before fluctuating downward. It quickly fell to a low of 73,350 yuan/mt by the end of the session and finally closed at 73,510 yuan/mt, down 0.57%. Trading volume reached 25,000 lots, and open interest was 133,000 lots. Macro side, hopes for a ceasefire in Gaza triggered a sell-off in the oil market, which also dragged down copper prices. Additionally, the International Copper Study Group reported that the copper cathode market had a surplus of 488,000 mt in the first six months of this year, exacerbating market concerns. Fundamentally, the spot market saw an increase in warrants, boosting supply. With rising copper prices, downstream buyers showed some hesitation, putting pressure on spot premiums/discounts. Price-wise, copper prices are expected to face some resistance.