SMM Aluminum Market Morning Comment (Aug 12)

Market: Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE 2409 aluminum contract opened at 19,170 yuan/mt. Bears built positions, pushing the price to a high of 19,225 yuan/mt, with the lowest point at 19,085 yuan/mt. It closed at 19,125 yuan/mt, up 45 yuan/mt, an increase of 0.24%. LME aluminum opened at $2,280/mt last Friday, reaching a high of $2,329.5/mt and a low of $2,280/mt. It closed at $2,295/mt, up $11/mt, an increase of 0.48%.

Summary: On the macro front, the Chinese government continues to boost the domestic economy, while the US Fed's interest rate cuts remain uncertain. In the short term, there are still many uncertainties on the macro side. Fundamentally, the domestic operating capacity of aluminum is gradually stabilizing, and the supply is gradually peaking. After entering August, downstream consumption of aluminum showed signs of stabilizing and recovering, and the market is waiting for the turning point in the social inventory of aluminum ingots. In the short term, both bullish and bearish factors are converging on the macro and fundamental sides, and aluminum prices may bottom out.