SMM Analysis Of Overseas Aluminum Production In July And Forecast For August

According to SMM statistics, the total production of overseas aluminium in July 2024 (31 days) was 2.536 million mt, up 0.5% YoY. As of July 2024, the cumulative production of overseas aluminium reached 17.388 million mt, up 1.3% YoY. The average capacity utilisation rate overseas was 87.9%, slightly up 0.2% MoM and up 0.6% YoY.

By region:

North America: Total output in July was 332,000 mt. The shutdown of New Madrid earlier this year led to a 2.8% YoY decrease in North American aluminium production. The current average capacity utilization rate in North America is 83.9%.

South America: Total output in July was 138,000 mt, up 5.0% YoY. The increase was driven by the resumption of production at two smelters: the Alumar smelter (60% owned by Alcoa, 40% by South 32) and the Aluminio smelter of Brazilian aluminium producer Companhia Brasileira de Aluminio (CBA). The Alumar smelter announced its resumption in April 2022, with a capacity utilization rate recovering to about 67% in July, producing approximately 25,000 mt in July. Additionally, CBA stated that demand in the Brazilian market had improved YoY and plans to restart two production lines in 2023-2024, expecting to add a total capacity of 80,000 mt. In July, CBA's aluminium production was about 30,000 mt, with a capacity utilization rate of approximately 80%, up 2.5% YoY.

Russia: Total production in July was approximately 353,000 mt, up 2.5% YoY. The increase came from the restart of the Taishet smelter. The plant announced its restart in early 2022, but progress has been slow. SMM estimates that the plant's total production in July was about 21,000 mt, with capacity utilisation rates recovering to around 57.6%.

Europe (excluding Russia): Total production in July was approximately 289,000 mt, up 1.2% YoY, with capacity utilisation rates at 72.9%. The increase mainly came from the resumption at Trimet's three plants in Germany. According to SMM estimates, the capacity utilisation rates of the three plants recovered to around 55% in July. Additionally, according to Alcoa's Q2 report, the San Ciprian plant in Spain is still facing difficulties in resuming production, with current operational efficiency at only 6%. Alcoa is actively advancing the sale process of San Ciprian and has already negotiated with three interested companies.

Africa: Total output in July was approximately 140,000 mt, up 2.7% YoY, with an average capacity utilization rate of about 84.9%.

Oceania: Total output in July was approximately 160,000 mt, up 0.1% YoY, with an average capacity utilization rate of about 89.5%.

Middle East: Total output in July was approximately 600,000 mt, down 1.4% YoY, with an average capacity utilization rate of 102.2%.

India: Total output in July was approximately 348,000 mt, up 0.7% YoY, with an average capacity utilization rate of 100.2%.

Excluding China, India, and the Middle East, other regions in Asia: Total production in July was 177,300 mt, up 3.5% YoY. The growth mainly came from Indonesia. The Huaqing Aluminium Smelter in Indonesia started operations in 2023 and has produced 500,000 mt in 2024. SMM estimates that the smelter's production in July was about 24,000 mt, with a capacity utilisation rate of approximately 58%.

Forecast for August: According to SMM statistics, overseas aluminium production in August 2024 (31 days) is expected to be around 2.54 million mt, up 0.5% YoY. The average capacity utilisation rate of overseas aluminium smelters is expected to be around 88%, up 0.2% MoM and 0.7% YoY.