SMM Aluminum Market Morning Comment (July 18)

The most-traded SHFE aluminum 2409 contract opened at 19,785 yuan/mt overnight, reaching a high of 19,810 yuan/mt and a low of 19,700 yuan/mt, and closed at 19,720 yuan/mt, down 70 yuan/mt, a decrease of 0.35%. The previous trading day, LME aluminum opened at $2,415.5/mt, reached a high of $2,424/mt and a low of $2,397/mt, and closed at $2,405.5/mt, down $10.5/mt, a decrease of 0.43%.

Summary: On the macro front, signs of a weakening US economy last night have revived expectations of a rate cut by the US Fed, causing the US dollar index to fall to a four-month low. The upcoming 20th Third Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee in China may bring new positive news. However, the assassination attempt on Trump over the weekend has increased his chances of winning, and the market expects his policies to be favorable to the dollar. Together with the uncertain situation of the Israel-Palestine conflict, this has added uncertainty to the market in the near term. On the fundamentals, domestic aluminium production is increasing, with some capacity still awaiting resumption. Downstream aluminium processing and end-user demand have entered the off-season, with some sectors experiencing demand shocks. The operating rate in the aluminium processing industry is declining, social inventory destocking is weak, and inventory levels are at a three-year high for the same period. Spot discounts may persist in the short term. The aluminium market currently lacks upward drivers, as the fundamentals remain bearish during the off-season. SMM expects aluminium prices to remain weak in the short term, with attention needed on macro changes and material-side events that may impact aluminium prices.