SMM Aluminum Market Morning Comment (July 3)

Market: Overnight, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract 2408 opened at 20,440 yuan/mt, reached a high of 20,460 yuan/mt, a low of 20,370 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,375 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous day, a decrease of 0.1%. LME aluminum opened at $2,517.5/mt in the previous trading day, hit a high of $2,537/mt, a low of $2,513/mt, and closed at $2,516/mt, down $1.5/mt from the previous day, a decrease of 0.06%.

Summary: Macro side, the dollar edged lower overnight as Fed Chairman Powell's speech was moderately dovish, suggesting that the Fed is more likely to launch an easing cycle later this year. The focus then shifts to the non-farm payrolls data to be released on Friday. Fundamentals, domestic aluminum supply maintained growth; the off-season dragged down the operating rate of downstream aluminum producers. In July, domestic aluminum ingot destocking has not proceeded smoothly, and inventory levels remain high for the same period. Spot discounts persist. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to move rangebound. We need to continue to monitor the Fed's rate cut process, domestic consumption performance, and inventory changes.