How will the strike in Guinea affect the alumina and aluminum prices? [SMM analysis]

According to reports by foreign media, Guinea’s trade unions submitted a notice on February 22 to start an indefinite strike nationwide on February 26. This news fuelled bullish sentiment in domestic alumina and aluminum market on February 23, boosting futures prices.

On February 26, the strike in Guinea officially began. Sékou Jamal Pendessa, Secretary General of the press union Syndicat des Professionnels de la Presse de Guinée (SPPG), was released on February 28, 2024 by the Conakry Court of Appeal amidst three days of a paralysing strike and street protests.

Local companies reported that the strike on Monday did not affect the bauxite; on Tuesday, as the strike undermined road and rail transportation, Guinea's bauxite transportation and ports were partially affected; on Wednesday, there were signs of gradual recovery in transportation, and the impact on the bauxite weakened again after suspension of strike. Overall, the overall impact on Guinea’s bauxite supply was extremely limited. In the domestic market, news of the strike only aroused some market concerns when it first came out on Feb 23. After the strike began last week, the market was generally not quite worried about the impact of the strike on bauxite supply, leaving bauxite prices largely stable. Guinea’s bauxite supply will not be significantly impacted if future strike is as brief as the latest one.