SMM Aluminum Market Morning Comment (Jan 5)

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE 2402 aluminum contract opened at 19,330 yuan/mt, with low and high at 19,260 yuan/mt and 19,350 yuan/mt before closing at 19,350 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt or 0.05%. LME aluminum opened at $2,304/mt yesterday, with high and low at $2,316.5/mt and $2,269/mt respectively before closing at $2,285/mt, a decrease of $21/mt or 0.91%.

From a macro perspective, the Fed's interest rate hike cycle may has already ended, and the time for interest rate cuts is unknown. Domestic macro environment remained positive, which boosted market confidence. Fundamentally, the cost crisis of aluminum is likely to ease, and social inventory began to accumulate during the off-season. As the macro front was intertwined with bullish and bearish factors in the short-term, aluminum prices may fluctuate at the current price level, and we need to pay close attention to the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the latest changes in raw materials.