China's copper cathode output in November was 960,800 mt, a decrease of 33,000 mt or 3.3% month-on-month, but a growth of 6.8% year-on-year, according to SMM data. The output was 40,400 mt lower than the expected 1 million mt. The output totalled 10.44 million mt from January to November, an increase of 1.03 million mt or 10.93% year-on-year.
Three smelters undertook planned maintenance in November, and one smelter reduced production due to equipment damage. A smelter began technological upgrading, and output at some smelters fell due to tight supply of blister copper. Those unfavourable factors resulted in sharp declines in the output in November. In addition, the output of newly-commissioned smelters was slower than expected, limiting new production, which was also one of the reasons why total production failed to increase. We believe that the average operating rate of copper cathode industry fell 3.41 percentage points month on month to 88.92% in November.
In December, according to SMM statistics, only one smelter has overhaul plan. In addition, the smelters that were overhauled in November will resume production. Many smelters reported that the supply of blister copper in December was better than that in November. Total production in December will increase compared with November. However, several newly-commissioned smelters were unable to produce copper cathode, and it is estimated that they will not be able to produce output until January, which will result in lower-than-expected output in December. Domestic copper cathode output is estimated at 1 million mt in December, up 43,700 mt or 4.55% month-on-month and 15.5% year-on-year, according to the current production schedules. The accumulated output from January to December is expected to stand at 11.45 million mt, an increase of 11.31% or 1.16 million mt year on year.
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