As we near the end of July, a notable slump in the prices of photovoltaic glass has been observed throughout the month. Currently, the prices for 3.2mm and 2.0mm photovoltaic glass are hovering between 24.8-25.5 yuan/square meter and 16.5-17.5 yuan/square meter respectively. Compared to June, these figures represent a decrease of 0.85 yuan/square meter and 1.4 yuan/square meter. But what are the underlying causes of this significant price drop?
This month's drop in price can primarily be attributed to two factors. Firstly, the cost of soda ash—a raw material for photovoltaic glass—has seen a continuous decline since June. The ex-factory price for soda ash in East China has plummeted to 1,900 yuan/mt, a decrease of nearly 1,000 yuan/mt. Furthermore, the price of another significant cost component, natural gas, has shifted to non-heating season rates. While some regions began implementing summer prices in June, it will take some time for this price change to be fully incorporated into July's photovoltaic glass pricing. According to the cost estimates by SMM, the decline in these two major costs is estimated to reduce the manufacturing cost of photovoltaic glass by approximately 1.5 yuan/square meter, thereby significantly weakening the price support.
Secondly, since mid to late June, there has been a noticeable decrease in the demand for photovoltaic glass. Despite the relative high levels of module scheduling, actual output has seen a significant decrease. SMM statistics for June show that domestic module production scheduling was around 41GW, but actual output only reached 38GW. This substantial decrease has led to a clear reduction in glass demand. However, the reason for the greater price reduction in 2.0mm products compared to 3.2mm products this month is as follows.
As can be seen from the above, since the start of 2023, the primary focus for domestic photovoltaic glass manufacturers has been the production of 2.0mm models. The constant decrease in the shipment volume of 3.2mm glass can be primarily attributed to the fact that in recent years, end-user power stations have largely demanded double-glass modules, which has in turn caused a continuous weakening demand for 3.2mm glass. As a result of these factors, module manufacturers have predominantly purchased 2.0mm glass, thus encouraging glass manufacturers to ramp up their production of 2.0mm glass. However, due to the reduction in module demand in June, downstream procurement has started to decrease. Given the unique nature of glass furnaces and the prior predominance of 2.0mm glass production, glass manufacturers are experiencing an increasing accumulation of 2.0mm glass inventory. According to a certain Anhui glass company, their 2.0mm inventory accounts for about 80% of the total inventory. Given the high inventory and low demand, glass companies have been compelled to lower their prices for 2.0mm glass this month. In an attempt to increase sales volume, they offered lower prices which resulted in a significant drop in the price of 2.0mm glass this month.
Looking forward, SMM predicts that August prices will not exhibit a strong upward trend. Although recent transactions have shown some improvement, given the glass costs and the off-season demand of module companies, glass prices will inevitably be suppressed, making it difficult for prices to rise in August.
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