Power battery data tracking: large increase in lithium iron phosphate production and substantial increase in lithium price [institutional review]

Market Review:

In February 2022, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose or fell by + 0.39, while the gem rose and fell by-1.17%. The automotive industry rose or fell by + 0.13%, the Wande Power Battery Index (884963.WI) rose or fell by + 7.93%, surpassing 26 of the 30 first-tier industries in CITIC, and the National New Energy vehicle Index (399417.SZ) rose or fell by + 5.16%. Among the power battery related sectors, the lithium ore index ranked first with a monthly rise and fall of + 31.68%, while the lithium diaphragm ranked last with a monthly rise and fall of + 5.01%.

Industry tracking:

Power battery:

In January 2022, the output of power battery increased significantly, and lithium iron phosphate increased greatly. In terms of production, ternary batteries produced 10815.30 megawatt-hours, + 57.95 percent year-on-year, and lithium iron phosphate batteries produced 18790.10 megawatt-hours, + 261.79 percent year-on-year.

The proportion of lithium iron phosphate loading increased. Ternary batteries loaded 7299.9 megawatts, year-on-year + 35.22%, lithium iron phosphate batteries 8873.9 megawatts, year-on-year + 172.72%. In terms of market share, ternary batteries accounted for + 45.13%, compared with last year-17.26pct, lithium iron phosphate accounted for + 54.87%, compared with last year + 17.26pct. From a sub-enterprise point of view, the share of domestic power battery enterprises remains relatively stable, Ningde era share takes the lead, BYD year-on-year growth.

New energy vehicles:

Production and sales reached a new high in January, with production and sales of more than 450000 vehicles in a single month, and production and sales maintained a high growth trend compared with the same period last year. The monthly production and sales of new energy vehicles were 452200 and 431400 respectively, + 133.55% and + 140.79% respectively over the same period last year.

In terms of vehicle models, the monthly production and sales of new energy passenger vehicles and new energy commercial vehicles increased year on year, but the growth rate of production and sales of new energy passenger vehicles was significantly higher than that of new energy commercial vehicles. Among them, the production and sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 488100 and 498000 respectively, + 127.70% and + 120.65% respectively compared with the same period last year.

From the point of view of the source of sub-power, the monthly production and sales of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles have increased significantly compared with the same period last year, and the monthly production and sales volume and the cumulative production and sales volume of this year have doubled compared with the same period last year.

The cathode materials of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide and lithium iron phosphate have increased greatly in the past month. The price of lithium carbonate is 468000 yuan / ton, lithium hydroxide 419500 yuan / ton, cobalt sulfate 111500 yuan / ton, lithium iron phosphate cathode 160000 yuan / ton, intermediate artificial graphite 51500 yuan / ton.

Investment advice:

Recently, new energy vehicles continue to sell well, superimposed by 22 years of good expected sales, resulting in a substantial increase in the price of lithium resources upstream of power batteries. At present, before the development of battery recycling and other lithium extraction technologies, lithium resources can not achieve the balance of supply and demand. The upstream of the power battery industry chain suggests attention: Ganfeng lithium industry, Tianqi lithium industry, Huayou cobalt industry; the middle reaches of the power battery industry chain: Rongbai Technology, Bertre and Kodali; the downstream of the power battery industry chain: Ningde era and BYD.

Risk tips: policy changes; lithium technology route changes; new energy vehicle sales are not as expected.