Has the lithium plate bottomed out? The intensive pre-increase in the middle reaches led the rebound institutions to shout, "it is still the best track."

In early trading on the 12th, the lithium plate, which had been silent for a long time, finally ushered in a rebound. It is worth noting that the stocks with the highest gains are mainly concentrated in the middle and upper reaches of the industrial chain, in which Huayou Cobalt Industry rose by the daily limit, German Nano rose by more than 12%, and China Science and Technology, Rongbai Technology, Xingyuan material and Zhuhai Guanyu rose by more than 5%. When rising technology, Enjie shares rose.

The rise in share prices may be related to a number of pre-earnings reports.

German Nano and Huayou Cobalt, which took the lead in the increase, all issued pre-increase announcements on the evening of the 11th, and their performance both exceeded expectations. Rongbai Technology, Bertre, Enjie shares also forecast 2021 results a few days ago.

On the whole, the reasons for the pre-increase in performance are basically inseparable from the "prosperity of production and marketing" and the increase in product prices. First, the high demeanor of the downstream lithium electricity market promotes a substantial increase in material demand; second, the release of new production capacity, economies of scale; third, the rising prices of upstream raw materials and products in short supply.

In addition, a number of manufacturers have also released the news of production expansion / new orders in the near future. Huayou Cobalt will cooperate with LG Chemical to build a high-nickel cathode material factory in South Korea; German Nano plans to invest 7.5 billion yuan in a new phosphate cathode material project; and Rongbai Technology will be bound by Ningde era again and will become the first supplier of ternary cathode powder for the latter from 2023 to 2025.

The subsidy policy is expected to become a huge positive sector in 2022 and will still be favored.

Under the influence of the high valuation pressure superimposed by the decline of new energy subsidies, the lithium industry chain is in the doldrums in the near future.

However, the Federation said yesterday that the new energy subsidy policy in 2022 is a huge boon and is optimistic about the increase in electric vehicles at the end of the year. According to the latest policy, the framework and threshold requirements of the current technical index system of purchase subsidies will remain unchanged in 2022, while the scale of subsidies will not be locked from the original upper limit of 2 million vehicles, and subsidies will be realized throughout 2022.

With the doubling of the scale of the new energy industry chain and the improvement of the ability to reduce costs, it is expected that the new energy vehicles will have a "strong increment" by the end of 2022. Increase the sales of new energy passenger vehicles in 2022 from 4.8 million to more than 5.5 million, with a penetration rate of about 25 per cent.

At the same time, the electric heavy trucks in commercial vehicles are also ready to start. Due to the limitation of mileage and purchase cost, the use of electric heavy truck in short-distance transportation scene has become a feasible mode. Experts expect production of more than 40, 000 vehicles this year, a threefold increase, bringing demand for more than 60GWh power batteries.

Among the cost of power batteries, positive materials account for about 30%, followed by negative materials accounting for 18%, and diaphragms and electrolytes account for about 6%, all of which are expected to benefit from the increase in battery demand.

In view of the recent plate adjustment, Anxin Securities believes that it is mainly trading, New year style and other capital behavior, rather than fundamental changes; from a medium-and long-term point of view, lithium electricity "is still the best investment track". It is recommended to pay attention to the global competitiveness, market share is expected to increase the segment of the industry leader, as well as lithium iron phosphate and high nickel as the representative of the high-speed track; there is still a relatively tight supply and demand of mid-stream materials.