This week, spot lithium carbonate prices showed a pattern of rising first then falling, with an overall downward trend. The futures market was relatively weak, with the most-traded 2701 contract price range drifting lower from 158,100-162,900 yuan/mt at the start of the week to 149,500-158,000 yuan/mt, after hitting a high of 162,900 yuan/mt mid-week and then continuously pulling back, with a low of 149,500 yuan/mt, once again approaching the key 150,000 yuan/mt level. Open interest increased first then decreased, with an intense tug-of-war between longs and shorts.
Market trading showed a pattern of "active on dips, cautious on rises." Upstream lithium chemical plants, with early-month long-term contracts being shipped gradually, saw a slight increase in willingness to sell spot orders when prices rose above 160,000 yuan/mt; as prices drifted lower, willingness to sell spot orders weakened, with some holding prices firm and holding back from selling, keeping spot order quotes at 165,000 yuan/mt and above. Downstream material plants, at 155,000 yuan/mt and below, saw spot order purchase willingness continue to recover, with strong dip-buying enthusiasm; but after prices shot up, willingness to chase higher was insufficient, and purchasing turned cautious. Overall, market inquiries and actual transactions were relatively active, but the intended price levels of upstream and downstream still diverged.
Supply side continued to recover, with September production expected to increase about 11% MoM. In August, China's lithium carbonate supply gradually rebounded as spodumene, lepidolite, and salt lake operations resumed production after maintenance, with salt lake lithium extraction output increasing due to seasonal factors, but with some salt lake producers undergoing maintenance, overall production was basically stable. Entering September, as maintenance across raw material sources ends and production resumes, output will rise significantly; the recycling segment, benefiting from downstream demand recovery, also saw output growth. From inventory changes: upstream lithium chemical plants increased spot order sales at high prices, reducing inventory; downstream material plants, with long-term contracts and customer-supplied materials being shipped gradually, combined with increased spot order purchases after price declines, kept inventory basically stable; trader inventory saw slight destocking.
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