Lithium resource stocks rise and stop! The agency predicts that the lithium price will rise again and whether the plate will return to the hot track?

Today, the lithium resources sector rose sharply, with a number of stocks rising by the daily limit. By the close, the Salt Lake Lithium Index was up more than 5%. Among stocks, only Cyber 20cm rose by the daily limit, Koda Manufacturing, Mount Qomolangma in Tibet, Tianqi Lithium Industry rose by the daily limit, and Lanxiao Technology rose more than 10%. In addition, Jiuwu Hi-Tech, Tibet Mining and Ganfeng Lithium Industry were among the top gainers.

The price of lithium rose catalyzed by stock before the end of the year, and the supply side of the lithium industry is still tight.

Since the beginning of this year, due to the continuation of tight supply and demand, lithium prices have remained strong. As of November 17, the average price of lithium carbonate (99.5% battery grade / domestic) has reached 197500 yuan / ton, approaching 200000 yuan, according to SMM data. Citic Construction Investment Securities research pointed out that the demand for power batteries for new energy vehicles is growing rapidly. It is estimated that the demand for lithium for 21-22 years will be 610000 tons and 800000 tons respectively, with a gap of 43000 tons and 57000 tons respectively. The permeability of new energy vehicles continues to exceed expectations, and the expansion rate of upstream lithium resources is difficult to meet the demand for downstream battery materials.

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Lithium prices have risen slightly since October due to the short-lived impact of wait-and-see sentiment and power cuts among downstream buyers, but some agencies have pointed out that the market is likely to welcome a third rise in lithium prices. King Nonferrous said in a conference call yesterday (November 17) that the end of the year is approaching and the centralized stock cycle is approaching. This week, it is obvious that the purchasing mood of manufacturers has increased and the frequency of inquiry has increased. Starting this week, the third lithium price increase has been brewing and will start, lithium carbonate prices will take the lead to rise. At the current node, the electric carbon will hit 250000 in the short term and will not be capped in the medium and long term.

For next year's lithium price market, Guojun non-ferrous believes that the tension of the lithium industry in 2022 must be higher than that in 2021. It points out that there are two key points in subsequent price increases:

1) in the two to three weeks from late November to late December in 2021, taking into account the purchase of stock before the Spring Festival, in the process of a large number of centralized procurement, it will promote the pulse change of prices and bring impetus to the rise.

2) around mid-February 2022. Mainly considering that the current supply is relatively tight, even if the mid-stream material factory carries out centralized procurement at the first time point, it is very difficult to buy a large amount of inventory sufficient to support normal production for two or three months, so around mid-February 2022, there will be another relatively concentrated purchase, which will promote the rise in prices.

In the past, the popular track was called back for several months, can the plate return to the king again?

The lithium resources sector is one of the hottest tracks this year, benefiting from the double positive factors of resource scarcity superimposed by the new energy concept. The sector index is strong, especially the sharp rise between July and mid-September. Take the salt lake lithium plate as an example, the plate index rose more than 70%. Related lithium resources stocks also benefited one after another. as of the close today (November 17), the shares of Tibet Mining rose nearly 280% this year, Zangge Holdings and Tibet City Investment rose more than 200%, and Salt Lake shares, Mount Qomolangma in Tibet and Tianqi Lithium Industry rose more than 150%.

However, with the collective decline of cyclical stocks in mid-September, Lithium Niu also fell into a correction for nearly a month, and then continued to fluctuate to this day. The market focuses on whether the plate can rise again in the future. Cinda Securities expects that supply and demand will continue to tighten in the fourth quarter, and lithium prices will continue to maintain an upward trend. It is suggested to focus on undervalued enterprises or enterprises with marginal growth of lithium resources that are rich in lithium reserves and benefit from rising lithium prices.

King Nonferrous also believes that the short-term stock price pulls back 30% Mel 40% from the high point, among which there are many factors, such as electricity new track adjustment, periodic stock adjustment and so on. Combined with the fundamentals of industry supply and demand, plate valuation next year, there is no need to be pessimistic about lithium plate, now is the time to buy. Lithium prices will usher in the third wave of rise before the Spring Festival, which is also the catalyst for recommending lithium plates at this point in time. At current valuations, the lithium industry has a strong margin of safety. Recommended targets: Tianqi Lithium Industry, Yongxing Materials, Ganfeng Lithium Industry, Tianhua Chaojing, Shengxin Lithium Energy, Koda Manufacturing, Tibet Mining and other targets.

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