Can the wave of photovoltaic installation arrive as scheduled? Silicon prices end a sharp jump in the industrial chain game may show initial results

The fourth quarter is the peak season of traditional photovoltaic installation, according to the latest national power industry statistics, from January to September this year, the country added solar power 25.56GW. If calculated on the basis of previous 50GW installation expectations for the whole year, the fourth quarter may bear nearly half of the new installed capacity for the whole year.

However, the price rise of silicon since the beginning of the year has intensified the game of the industrial chain, or the biggest uncertainty about whether the installation can be completed in the fourth quarter. The National Energy Administration proposed in the relevant notice that it will actively promote new energy power generation projects to merge and generate as much as possible.

It is worth noting that according to the silicon industry branch announced the market, the photovoltaic industry chain price "source" silicon prices after the first two nearly 10% jump, and finally tend to calm down, month-on-week increase of about 0.30%. A component business person told the Financial Associated Press that rising upstream costs led to a reduction in production downstream, countering a sharp rise in upstream prices after a reduction in demand.

Do what you can and do what you can.

According to national power industry statistics, as of the end of September, the country's installed power generation capacity was 2.29 billion kilowatts, an increase of 9.4 percent over the same period last year. Of this total, the installed capacity of wind power is about 300 million kilowatts, up 32.8 percent over the same period last year, and that of solar power is about 280 million kilowatts, an increase of 24.6 percent over the same period last year.

Among them, from January to September this year, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic in China was 25.56GW, while the new data in the previous August was 22.05GW, that is, the new installed capacity in September was 3.51GW, which was lower than that in July and August.

When the downstream installation is in the doldrums, the favorable policies of the industry are constantly released. According to the relevant documents of the National Energy Administration, since the beginning of this year, China's electricity and coal consumption has increased rapidly, and the supply and demand of electricity has continued to be tight. Speeding up the grid connection of wind power and photovoltaic power generation projects and increasing clean power supply will not only help to alleviate the tense situation of power supply and demand, but also help to achieve the double control goal of energy consumption and promote the low-carbon transformation of energy.

In this regard, the document requires Electroweb enterprises to take effective measures to ensure timely grid connection for wind power and photovoltaic power generation projects that have the conditions for grid connection in accordance with the principle of "merging as much as possible".

At present, China's "carbon neutralization" development strategy defines the rapid development trend of clean energy such as photovoltaic and wind power. However, while the upstream cost rises, which has an impact on the demand for terminal installation, the lower reaches of the industrial chain may once again face the choice between "insurance market" and "insurance policy". Some industry insiders told the Financial Associated Press that judging from the situation in previous years, the head enterprises usually choose to ensure the completion of orders in order to stabilize the market pattern. However, the cost of the insurance policy is also obvious, the cost pressure of photovoltaic modules is slow and difficult to transmit to end customers, and most component companies face a sharp decline in sales gross profit margin.

The financial situation disclosed by the China Daily also confirms the above statement. Take Dongfang Sunrise as an example, the company's solar cell and module business gross profit margin was only 0.74% in the first half, down 12.99% from the same period last year, and dragged down the comprehensive gross profit margin to 8.84% from 19.69% in the same period last year. In addition, Longji shares, Jingke Energy and other comprehensive gross margin also declined.

The willingness to connect to the grid downstream is low.

Industrial chain game continues, so that component enterprises have to stand in the same camp, joint voice. Longji, Jingke, Tianhe, Jingao, Oriental Risheng and other five major photovoltaic module companies jointly issued an appeal letter on September 30, saying that the current production capacity is expected to reach no more than 70%. The shortage of capacity will make it difficult to meet the market installation target within a short period of time. I hope that the majority of customers can give component enterprises full understanding and give due consideration to postponing the installation plan of the power station.

A person from a head assembly enterprise told the Financial Associated Press that the current operating rate of components is relatively low, which has been maintained at about 70% in the near future. At present, it does not make much sense to increase the quotation for components of more than 2 yuan. Generally speaking, the acceptance of downstream power stations has been very limited. For some ground power stations, projects that can be delayed may be delayed until next year.

"from the current point of view, orders and the company's supply are very adequate, especially the power restriction policy has a stimulating effect on distributed photovoltaic, the demand will be more exuberant. However, at this stage, the problems existing in the photovoltaic industry chain are also very obvious, and the cost pressure of downstream shipments is generally large. " The above-mentioned components business people told the Financial Associated Press reporter.

In the face of a sharp decline in gross profit margin, component enterprises can only play a game with the upstream by reducing the operating rate. Prior to this, some business people said that the profits downstream of photovoltaic are capped by ceilings, and the upstream costs are constantly rising, to a certain extent, it will force everyone to reduce production or even stop production.

It is worth mentioning that after entering the fourth quarter, the game of the industrial chain has achieved initial results. The latest price of the Silicon Industry Branch shows that the silicon quotation did not continue the 10% jump of the previous two rounds. At present, the domestic single crystal re-feeding price range is 262000-275000 yuan / ton, and the average transaction price is 270700 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.30%. The price range of single crystal compact material is 260000-273000 yuan / ton, the average transaction price is 268700 yuan / ton, and the weekly increase is 0.26%.

The Silicon Industry Branch believes that the subsequent silicon material market price will still mainly depend on the operating rate of silicon wafer enterprises: if the demand for silicon wafer and battery wafer is blocked due to the long-term upside-down cost of terminal components or the maximum inventory of the industrial chain, when the operating rate falls below supply, prices will stop rising or even begin to fall.

If the component end price can break through 2.1-2.2 yuan / W and continue, the silicon material in the current operating rate is insufficient, the price can still maintain high operation.