Guoxin Securities released a research report that the global "electrification" has driven the explosive growth of demand for lithium batteries and electrolytes. It is estimated that global sales of new energy vehicles will reach 16.36 million in 2025, global demand for lithium batteries is expected to reach 1244GW, domestic demand for lithium batteries will reach 574GW, and global demand for lithium electrolytes is expected to increase from 400000 tons in 2020 to about 1.87 million tons. Recommended attention: carbonate solvent industry leader Shi Da Shenghua (603026.SH), Hua Lu Hengsheng (600426.SH).
The main points of Guoxin Securities are as follows:
Solvent is one of the three major materials of electrolyte, and the mixed system of carbonate solvent is commonly used.
Electrolyte is the "blood" of lithium-ion battery, which determines the comprehensive performance of lithium-ion battery, which is mainly composed of lithium salt, solvent and additive. According to the proportion of mass, 80% of the electrolyte is solvent, 10% is 12%, and 3% is 5%. According to the cost ratio, lithium salt accounts for 40-50%, solvents account for about 30%, and additives account for about 10-30%. The main solvents are carbonates, and the commonly used electrolyte solvents are mixed systems of five kinds of carbonate solvents.
Global "electrification" drives the explosive growth of demand for lithium batteries and electrolytes
The bank predicts that global sales of new energy vehicles will reach 5.17 million in 2021, while domestic sales are expected to reach 2.3 million. Global sales of new energy vehicles are expected to reach 16.36 million in 2025. In 2025, the global demand for lithium battery is expected to reach 1244GW, and the domestic demand for lithium battery is expected to reach 574GWh. it is estimated that the global demand for lithium electrolyte will increase from 400000 tons in 2020 to about 1.87 million tons in 2025, with CAGR reaching 35%. The domestic demand for lithium-ion battery electrolyte is expected to increase from 210000 tons in 2020 to 900000 tons in 2025, with CAGR of 35%. Among them, the demand for ternary electrolyte and LFP electrolyte is expected to be 490000 tons and 360000 tons respectively in 2025. In 2025, domestic solvent demand will increase from 200000 tons in 2020 to 800000 tons, and CAGR will reach 34%.
The production of battery-grade solvents is difficult and the competition pattern is excellent. CAGR will be 34% in the next 5 years.
The bank predicts that the global demand for battery-grade solvents will be about 1.871 million tons in 2025, of which the domestic demand for battery-grade solvents will be about 805000 tons, with a compound growth rate of 34.6 percent in the next five years, of which the demand for battery-grade DMC, EMC, EC, DEC and PC will be 22.4,19.8,26.8,7.7 and 38000 tons, respectively. Battery-grade solvent process is difficult, catalyst selection requirements are high, purification is difficult, purity requirements are at least 99.99%, there are only a handful of domestic large-scale production enterprises, mainly concentrated in Shida Shenghua, Haike Xinyuan and other leading enterprises, the competition pattern is excellent.
Non-phosgene polycarbonate drives DMC demand, and integrated enterprises have significant advantages.
At present, the global DMC production capacity is about 1.2 million tons, the market space is about 10 billion yuan, and the domestic DMC production capacity is 950000 tons. In 2020, the domestic DMC output is 480000 tons, with an operating rate of about 70%. DMC is traditionally widely used as a green solvent in coatings, developers and so on. In recent years, the demand for polycarbonate by electrolyte solvent and non-phosgene process has increased rapidly. It is estimated that 52 and 500000 tons of non-phosgene polycarbonate will be put into production in 2021 and 2022, respectively, driving the demand for DMC of 26 and 250000 tons respectively. The bank is optimistic about enterprises with the advantage of upstream raw material integration.
Risk hint: raw material prices fluctuate sharply, product prices fluctuate sharply, and new production capacity changes.
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