SMM6 March 7: last Friday, most of the outer disk metal weeks strengthened, only lead fell, Lunchu rebounded, as investors bought bargains after the previous day's sharp fall. Us non-farm payrolls were lower than expected in May, easing fears that the Fed would withdraw its stimulus measures. There are ups and downs in the LME metal market today. As of 09:20, Lun Copper and Lun Aluminum rose nearly 0.2%, Lun lead rose nearly 0.4%, Lun Zinc and Lun Ni fell nearly 0.2%, Lunxi was flat, most domestic metals were red, international copper and Shanghai copper rose nearly 1.2%, Shanghai aluminum rose nearly 1.3%, Shanghai lead fell nearly 0.7%, Shanghai zinc rose nearly 0.4%, Shanghai nickel rose nearly 0.5%, and Shanghai tin rose nearly 1.2%.
On the copper side, on the macro side, it was announced on Friday that 559000 new non-farm payrolls were created in the United States in May, less than the market expected of 670000. Lower-than-expected non-farm payrolls partly allayed fears that the Fed might tighten stimulus measures, with three major U.S. stock indexes in late trading on Friday.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] currency tightening fears weakening copper performance stopped falling and rebounded
In terms of aluminum, on the macro side, US non-farm payrolls data were worse than expected, and the dollar index gave up its previous gains to support the metal market. From a fundamental point of view, it is still in the peak season of consumption, and the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in some areas is still in the depot cycle due to the wrong peak and electricity limit. Short-term focus on macro changes, the sea.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] concerns about currency tightening weakening fundamentals support better aluminum high volatility
In terms of lead, last Friday night, Shanghai lead continued to decline amid the weakening of Lun lead and the accumulated pressure of social inventory during the day. All ferrous metals generally jumped into the sky and opened low. In this atmosphere, Shanghai lead slipped below the moving average group and approached the Wanwu first line. Recently, Shanghai lead bears entered the market for the fifth trading day in a row, dragging Shanghai lead under the lower rail of Bollinger Road, and paying attention to the support of the lower rail of Shanghai lead Brin Road during the day. And whether Shanghai lead can briefly stop falling and stand back above the Wanwu first line. It is expected that the average price of SMM1# lead today.
[minutes of SMM lead Morning meeting] lead weakens again overnight and pays attention to the accumulation of spot social stocks of lead ingots during the day.
Zinc, last Friday, Shanghai zinc recorded a small negative column, the upper 5 / 10 moving average to form a pressure, the lower 40-day moving average to provide support. In the near future, the supply-side disturbance still exists, while the consumer side is also weak as a whole, and supply and demand are both weak. If there is no macro negative for the time being, zinc prices may remain high.
[minutes of SMM Zinc Morning meeting] Zinc fundamentals have not changed significantly in the short term or will continue to fluctuate at a high level.
In terms of nickel, US ADP payrolls and non-farm payrolls are two opportunities for weekend price fluctuations. The Fed continued quantitative easing and allowed inflation to climb. After the rise in CPI, the market no longer reacted positively to the strong US economic data. In the short term, the chances of the Fed scaling back its bond purchases remain low. It is expected that this week.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Nickel prices are high, prices are strong, nickel sulfate prices are strong, and demand is exuberant.
In terms of tin ingots, the power restriction measures in Yunnan have been alleviated, and some smelters have resumed production links with low power consumption, such as electrolysis, but the overall supply has not yet been fully restored, the domestic spot supply is still tight, and the rising discount remains strong. Recently, the high price of tin has dealt a great blow to the consumption enthusiasm downstream, and it is difficult for tin in Shanghai to get the support from consumption.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the supply is tight and the price of tin remains high and fluctuating.
In terms of black series, threads fell nearly 1.3%, hot rolls fell nearly 1.8%, coking coal rose nearly 1.5%, coke fell nearly 1.4%, iron ore rose nearly 0.3%, stainless steel fell nearly 0.3%. In terms of threads, the policy in June is still an important factor disturbing the market, including looking back on steel production capacity, how to implement the policy of dual control of production capacity, and whether the steel export tariff policy will be adjusted. The regulatory authorities will investigate and deal with violations, and whether monetary policy will be adjusted, and so on. While the fundamental drive of rebar itself is not strong, the demand is facing the test of the off-season, at the same time, the supply is expected to be reduced when the profits of steel mills are compressed. Therefore, in the short term, under the background of phased loosening of the supply and demand pattern, steel prices may fluctuate widely, and the overall situation is relatively weak.
[minutes of SMM Iron and Steel Morning meeting] Policy intervention weakens supply and demand fundamentals and price drivers are not strong.
The last period of crude oil rose nearly 1.7%, international oil prices continued to rise on Friday, the OPEC alliance of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries ((OPEC)) and its allies insisted on supply policy unchanged, and demand recovery overshadowed concerns about uneven vaccination progress around the world. U.S. employers increased hiring in May as the easing of the epidemic led to more people returning to the labor market with the help of vaccinations, which guaranteed the economy's recovery from the novel coronavirus recession, according to a report released by the Labor Department on Friday.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold rose nearly 1.6%, while Shanghai silver rose nearly 0.9%. Comex gold futures rebounded from more than a two-week low on Friday after US non-farm payrolls grew less than expected. Job market data suggest that the US economy has a bumpy road to recovery from the novel coronavirus epidemic, which could pause the Fed as it considers abolishing loose monetary policy and normalizing benchmark interest rates. Us benchmark interest rates are currently in the range of 0% to 0.25%.
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
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