SMM3 March 9: metals on the outer disk were mixed yesterday. Copper futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose on Monday, breaking through $9000 a tonne, after the US Senate approved a $1.9 trillion economic stimulus package and China, the largest consumer, increased copper imports, while its exports hit a record high. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, China imported 3.79 million tons of copper ore and its concentrates from January to February 2021, up 0.9 per cent from 3.756 million tons in the same period last year. Imports of unwrought copper and copper products from January to February were 884009.6 tons, up 4.7 per cent from 844723.4 tons in the same period last year. In early trading today, most of the LME metal market was green, Lun Copper fell nearly 0.5%, Lun Zinc fell nearly 0.1%, Lun Aluminum fell nearly 0.4%, Lunni fell nearly 0.2%, Lunxi was flat, Lun lead rose nearly 0.1%. Domestically, international copper rose nearly 0.5%, Shanghai Copper rose nearly 0.4%, Shanghai Zinc rose nearly 1.3%, Shanghai Aluminum fell nearly 0.8%, Shanghai lead fell nearly 0.7%, Shanghai Nickel fell nearly 0.6%, and domestic copper rose nearly 0.5%, Shanghai Copper rose nearly 0.4%, Shanghai Zinc rose nearly 1.3%, Shanghai Aluminum fell nearly 0.8%, Shanghai lead fell nearly 0.7%, Shanghai Nickel fell nearly 0.6%. Shanghai tin fell nearly 1.4%.
On the copper side, on the macro front, the US House of Representatives is expected to vote on the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill on Wednesday. Treasury Secretary Yellen reiterated that the stimulus measures are unlikely to lead to inflation, and said policy makers have the tools to deal with the relevant challenges. Yellen's speech played down market concerns about inflation. In addition, the increase in novel coronavirus cases in the United States last week reached the lowest level since the beginning of the epidemic, and as vaccination accelerated and the economy continued to recover, investor optimism continued to rise, and copper futures rose significantly at night.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] optimism will boost the rise of copper and the rising discount will show a steady trend.
In terms of aluminum, the recent high and wide volatility of domestic and foreign aluminum futures continues, the spot maintains a small discount, and the accumulation rate of domestic aluminum ingot inventory slows down. in the short term, the decline is in line with previous expectations, and the high point of market inventory is about 1.35 million tons. combined with the current domestic consumption situation of aluminum downstream, the inventory inflection point is expected to appear in the middle and second half of this month. In the medium term, we will continue to pay attention to the changes in multi-short sentiment, and it is suggested that the upstream should increase shipping efforts. Downstream procurement is dominated by bargain-hunting. In the follow-up, we need to continue to pay attention to the impact of new messages from the "two sessions" on short-term mood fluctuations in the market.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Aluminum inventory slows down the inflection point or shows in the middle of the year that electrolytic aluminum production increased by 5.23% in February compared with the same period last year.
Lead, overnight, the dollar index on the exercise of outer disk metal pressure rise is limited, while the general downstream demand for lun lead in this background against the bulls to reduce positions to avoid risk, shock negative, falling below the $2000 / ton line. Despite the recent overseas macro positive, Lun lead has not yet come out of the downward callback trend, the weekly line out of M head, concerned about the M bottom 1960 yuan / ton first-line support. Overnight, Shanghai lead high open low walk narrow shock recorded a small Yin column, 14800 yuan / ton first line support is OK. In the near future, we still need to pay attention to whether the demand for purchase and reserve stocks downstream of domestic lead is driving the slowing trend of lead ingots, and during the day, we should pay attention to whether Shanghai lead can stop falling and stabilize and stand at the front line of 14800 yuan / ton.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the spot market is mainly buying and watching cautiously when lead falls in and out of the market overnight.
In terms of zinc, overnight Shanghai zinc recorded three consecutive positive, daily K center of gravity moved up, 10-day moving average turned downward to form support, MACD positive column expanded. Under the macro positive background at home and abroad, the consumption of zinc downstream blocks gradually warms up, and the TC of zinc mines continues to decline, and the tight pattern of zinc mines has not been alleviated, thus supporting zinc prices. Pay short-term attention to the release of information from the two sessions.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the margin of supply and demand is good. Zinc prices will continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term.
In terms of nickel, the recent sharp drop in nickel prices reflects the strong adjustment that the nickel market has lost its previous fundamental support and has been repriced after the big manufacturers want to develop the route from Indonesian nickel to high matte. In the future, the trend of nickel price will return to the fundamentals of the original nickel balance sheet. At the same time, after the conversion of ferronickel to new energy raw materials, the expanding premium between ferronickel and nickel sulfate will be repaired. The comparative relationship between the cost or selling price of the two is also the main support for determining the lower boundary line of the nickel price. So far, the bulls have not accumulated enough strength to bring a significant rebound, but this round of decline is expected to be overdrawn in advance after the high matte is put into production, and the market is still watching the opportunity for a rebound and the momentum consumption of the bears in this round of decline.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the spot price of nickel rose slightly and the demand decreased slightly. The mentality of buyers and sellers in the nickel pig iron market is still divided and wait-and-see.
In terms of black, threads fell nearly 0.8%, hot rolls fell slightly, coking coal fell nearly 1.7%, coke dropped nearly 0.4%, iron ore dropped nearly 3.5%, stainless steel fell nearly 1.4%, hot rolls, early trading volumes rose sharply, spot quotations actively pursued up 100-130 yuan / ton, the overall market transaction was not smooth after the price increase, the merchant shipment was poor, the market inquiry atmosphere was general, the afternoon volume fell, and the merchant quotation went down. Some market transactions have improved to a certain extent, low-price transactions are OK, the overall market transaction performance is still general, all-day transactions are generally weak.
SMM internal morning meeting opinion market fear of heights
The previous period of crude oil fell nearly 1.5%, and international oil prices closed lower on Monday, falling from a daily high of more than $70 a barrel. Earlier, oil prices rose to such a high level for the first time since the start of the novel coronavirus pandemic after attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. Last week, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries ((OPEC)) and its allies decided to keep the scale of production cuts basically unchanged in April. In addition, a preliminary survey released on Monday showed that stocks in crude and finished oil depots in the United States decreased last week, with distillate depots falling for the fifth consecutive week.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell nearly 0.6%, while Shanghai silver fell slightly, and COMEX gold futures closed at their lowest close since early April last year, as rising yields on the dollar and Treasuries prompted investors to sell unyielding gold. After the aid bill was passed by the U.S. Senate on Saturday, U.S. president Joe Biden said he hoped the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives would quickly pass the revised bill so that he could sign it into law and issue 1400 dollars in cheques to the American people.
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
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