[SMM comment] the sharp rise of 7% in Shanghai Silver led to a small red in Shanghai Gold and a sharp fall in Shanghai Tin by 3%. The black line is generally green.

SMM2 March 1: the outer disk metal market was green on Friday, and copper futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) closed lower on Friday, as the rising dollar triggered profit-taking and concerns about Chinese demand, but inventories fell at an all-time low. A stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated metals more expensive for holders of other currencies, which usually depresses demand and prices. There were mixed ups and downs in the LME metal market this morning. As of 09:40, Lun Copper was down nearly 0.3%, Lun Aluminum was up nearly 0.6%, Lun Pb was down nearly 0.1%, Lunzn Zinc was up nearly 0.5%, Lunni was up nearly 0.3%, and Lunxi was down nearly 0.5%. Domestically, international copper fell nearly 0.7%, Shanghai copper fell nearly 0.5%, Shanghai aluminum rose nearly 1.8%, Shanghai lead fell nearly 1.7%, Shanghai zinc rose nearly 0.5%, Shanghai nickel fell nearly 0.2%, and Shanghai tin fell nearly 2.8%.

In terms of copper, the three major stock indexes of the US stock market fell sharply during the night, the dollar index rebounded from its lows, and copper rose and fell back during the pressure period. At the macro level, the Biden administration's hopes for a bipartisan $1.9 trillion bailout deal were dashed, Republicans proposed a $600 billion alternative, and Democrats would launch economic stimulus legislation on their own. China's official manufacturing PMI in January, announced on Sunday, was 51.3, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, and the pace of manufacturing expansion slowed.

[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Copper rallied at night during the low rebound in the dollar index.

In terms of aluminum, the overseas side is expected to follow the impact of macro policy in the near future. On the domestic side, with the approach of the Spring Festival, enterprises have entered the maintenance period and the Spring Festival holiday, orders and shipments have decreased, and they are still in a stock-accumulating cycle. In the short term, the trend of weak domestic fundamentals is difficult to change, but the holder is more willing to raise the price. Shanghai Aluminum rose sharply in Friday night trading, reflecting that some bulls and arbitrage funds are optimistic about 03-04 contracts. It is expected that Shanghai Aluminum's center of gravity will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the impact of inventory changes on market sentiment and contract structure.

[summary of SMM Morning meeting] Aluminium downstream processing companies continue to decline to guard against the inflection point of alumina pre-festival decline.

Lead, last Friday, Lun lead again wide concussion, the length of the cross column. LME lead warehouse once again continued the intensive pace of removal at the end of January, reducing 5400 tons to 98705 tons, continuing to support the high concussion of Galen lead. Last Friday night, Shanghai lead again crossed the 10-day moving average and continued to test the 20-day moving average support level. The Shanghai lead 2102 contract is about to be delivered, while there are only some short distances left in logistics, upstream and downstream enterprises will enter a concentrated holiday period, major enterprises will arrange the closing work one after another, and the spot market will enter a period of mediocre trading. Shanghai lead is expected to run at 14950-15400 yuan per ton this week.

[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] lead fell both inside and outside last Friday. This week, the spot market will enter a period of lacklustre trading.

In terms of nickel, from the perspective of fundamentals, the downstream consumption of stainless steel is better than the expected level in the same period in previous years, and the demand support for nickel is relatively ideal; the fundamental performance of nickel itself is stable, and the comprehensive performance of the domestic electrolytic nickel market is better than that of nickel pig iron. However, a large number of imports of bonded goods will gradually ease the tight supply of goods in the market; with the increase in the price of stainless steel, the price of high nickel pig iron has also improved. In addition, the procurement cycle of the new energy industry is ahead of schedule, resulting in a good performance of nickel sulfate consumption and a shortage of raw materials.

[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Nickel spot rising water slowly falling trading gradually turned light, high nickel pig iron price is strong and is expected to hold steady in the later period.

In terms of tin, the Spring Festival is approaching, and Huaxi Group will stop production for one month in February. At present, some factories in Jiangxi have entered a state of holiday. According to SMM research, the vast majority of manufacturers in Jiangxi will stop production during the Spring Festival; a small number of factories in Yunnan will stop production and have a holiday. At present, the WA state unsealed, tin ore supply has been restored, coupled with market concerns about liquidity tightening may restrict the trend of tin prices. The spot market will show more festive atmosphere this week, suppliers and demanders will begin to have holidays one after another, and the direction of tin prices may come more from futures prices.

[summary of SMM Morning meeting] Tin Mine supply resumes in WA State & liquidity worries that tin price trend may be restrained

On the black side, the thread fell nearly 0.8%, the hot coil fell nearly 0.5%, the coking coal fell nearly 1.6%, the coke rose 0.3%, the iron ore fell nearly 0.6%, the stainless steel rose nearly 1.4%, and on the thread side, the supply side: notice of production reduction & suspension of production and holiday, supply fell steadily; demand side: terminal, winter storage demand is coming to an end, and market trading is almost at a standstill. Generally speaking, rebar is still in a state of weak supply and demand, and the fundamental pressure is weakening. However, from the current point of view, the winter reserve has basically landed, most markets have entered a semi-closed state, only a very small number of demand still exist, so the space below is relatively narrow.

[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] both supply and demand are weakening short-term iron ore prices within a narrow range

Crude oil fell nearly 1% in the previous period, while u.s. crude oil futures closed slightly lower on Friday, with narrow intraday fluctuations as investors worried about the continuation of the global epidemic and slow vaccination. Brent crude, the most actively traded crude oil, also closed lower because of market concerns about vaccination and the effectiveness of a vaccine. Analysts pointed out that the number of vaccines is not enough, the U. S. economic stimulus package may not be able to support the market quickly.

In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell slightly, while Shanghai silver soared nearly 7%. Comex gold futures rose on Friday, driven in part by a surge in silver prices. A weaker dollar has made precious metals cheaper for buyers of other currencies, and the fall in the stock market has also helped the prices of both precious metals.

As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:

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