[SMM Daily Review] non-ferrous metals rise and fall each other. Shanghai Silver soars 4%. Black market collectively pressurized coking coal fell more than 4%.

SMM1 March 29: the non-ferrous metals market has its ups and downs today. by the end of the day, international copper fell 0.52%, Shanghai copper fell 0.78%, Shanghai aluminum rose 1.32%, Shanghai lead fell 1.66%, Shanghai zinc fell 0.49%, Shanghai nickel fell 0.84%, and Shanghai tin rose 0.3%. On the tin side, from a fundamental point of view, the continued tight supply side is still the main tone of this month. According to SMM research, transportation of the WA tin mine in Myanmar has resumed since last Tuesday, and about 200 metal tons of tin ore can be shipped out every day. According to local people, transportation will continue until around February 8 before the Spring Festival. The tight situation of domestic tin ore supply is still not effectively alleviated, the enthusiasm of smelter shipping is limited, and the spot market supply continues to be tight.

[SMM monthly Outlook] inventory is less than 900t! Tin prices hit new highs frequently in January. Tight spot is still the main tone.

In terms of lead, from a fundamental point of view, looking forward to February, another batch of lead smelters have entered the holiday rhythm, but compared with previous years, some refineries are worried about the problem of workers returning to work after the holiday and choose normal production, especially a number of newly expanded recycled lead enterprises in Anhui. It is worth mentioning that due to the prevention and control of the epidemic in the same period last year, the transportation of waste batteries was generally restricted, resulting in delays in the start of recycled lead refineries. This year, we need to continue to pay attention to the impact of the development of the epidemic on the procurement of raw materials for recycled lead refineries. In addition, Peru, the second largest importer of lead concentrate in China, began to implement blockade measures a few days ago, which may affect the shipment of lead concentrate. Overseas outbreaks may also further affect the inflow of imported mines, aggravate the shortage of domestic mines, and then affect the supply of primary lead, which requires continuous attention.

[SMM monthly Outlook] lead in Shanghai rose by more than 3% in January and the price of lead in supply and demand may weaken in February.

Tin, looking forward to February, zinc prices have fallen sharply recently, smelter production profits have been seriously compressed, and even fallen into a situation of losses. Pay attention to the maintenance of smelters in February. If the overhaul increases, the accumulation of domestic inventory during the Spring Festival holiday this year will be lower than expected, while we are relatively optimistic about post-holiday consumption, and the speed of going to the warehouse after the Spring Festival holiday may be accelerated. At the same time, as the market expectations of economic recovery will also drive zinc prices up, we believe that zinc prices in February may be mainly strong volatility.

[SMM monthly Outlook] Zinc in Shanghai fell by more than 6% in January. Post-holiday consumption is relatively optimistic that zinc prices may be strong in February.

In terms of black series, thread fell by 1.39%, hot coil by 2.12%, coking coal by 4.1%, coke by 2.39%, iron ore by 2.03%, and stainless steel by 0.18%. On the 26th, Huang Libin, spokesman for the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that in order to promote the reduction of steel production, and the Development and Reform Commission and other relevant departments are studying and formulating new production capacity replacement methods and project filing guidance. Will further guide and consolidate the effectiveness of steel production capacity. After the announcement of the news, the price trend of raw materials, including iron ore and coke, is obviously under pressure, and the market is expected to decline in demand for raw materials in 2021. On the whole, black futures have entered the adjustment cycle, but in the short term, the spot supply pattern of raw materials is still tight, and the spot market is gradually entering a "dormant" state near the Spring Festival. large fluctuations in futures have not had a greater negative impact on spot market prices for the time being, and it is expected that the range of black correction is limited.

[SMM Analysis] the main contract of black diving coking coal in the domestic futures market fell by more than 4%.

Crude oil rose 0.3% in the previous period, and international oil prices remained generally stable on Friday, remaining within the range of the past three weeks, with investors watching for signs of changes in supply and demand fundamentals. Reduced oil supplies in Saudi Arabia and falling oil inventories in the United States have helped offset price pressures from fuel demand. Due to the stagnant progress of vaccination and the emergence of a new variety of novel coronavirus, fuel demand has slowed down.

In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold rose 0.26%, while Shanghai silver rose 4.32%. Comex gold futures closed lower on Thursday, after the Federal Reserve's (FED) kept monetary policy unchanged and promised more funding measures to support the dollar as the first choice for risk aversion. Analysts point out that if I look at gold, it seems that the market is looking for a more dovish Fed. I still think gold will continue to rise this quarter, supported by lower US real interest rates and a weaker dollar.

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