SMM1 March 19: the outer metal market was mixed yesterday, with (LME) copper on the London Metal Exchange rising on Monday after strong economic data from China, a major consumer, confirmed the economic growth trend supporting demand for industrial metals. According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, according to preliminary calculations, China's (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2020 exceeded 101 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 6.5 percent, which was 6.1 percent higher than the median forecast of the survey, the highest since the fourth quarter of 2018. In a year when the epidemic is raging, thanks to the rapid control of the domestic epidemic and strong stimulus support, China is likely to become the only country with positive growth in the world. As of 09:30, Lun Copper rose nearly 0.3%, Lun Zinc rose nearly 0.2%, Lun Aluminum and Lun Ni rose nearly 0.1%, Lun Ni rose nearly 0.4%, and Lunxi was flat. On the domestic front, international copper and Shanghai copper rose nearly 0.5%, Shanghai aluminum fell nearly 0.7%, Shanghai lead fell nearly 0.4%, Shanghai zinc rose nearly 0.2%, Shanghai nickel rose nearly 0.8%, and Shanghai tin rose 1%.
On the copper side, on the macro front, Biden will be inaugurated as the next president of the United States on Wednesday, and Yellen, the nominee for Treasury Secretary, will attend a Senate hearing to defend the $1.9 trillion economic stimulus package, which the market is optimistic about. But at present, the novel coronavirus epidemic continues to spread, and the increase in global novel coronavirus cases makes investors take a cautious position. Under the mood of risk aversion, the US finger plate hit a high of 90.95 at night, and copper futures fell slightly at night.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Copper fell slightly during the night when the dollar index continued to strengthen.
In terms of aluminum, overseas parties are expected to follow the impact of macro news such as the United States in the near future. On the domestic side, the fundamentals are short-term intertwined, transportation is blocked, coal prices rise and reserve stocks downstream are effective, while the negative background of temperature and rise at the supply end and seasonal weakening of rigid demand is not impacted. It is expected that the center of gravity of Shanghai Aluminum will continue to perform tangled downwards in the short term, so we need to continue to pay attention to the impact of inventory changes on market sentiment and contract structure.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] short-term fundamentals Multi-empty Interleaver Reserve Bank stimulates inventory decline of aluminum ingots
In terms of lead, overnight, the center of gravity of Lun lead moved down, falling below the high of 2000 yuan / ton, and lengthening the shadow line Xiaoyang pillar. Overnight, Shanghai lead again on the Wanwu line is not stable, long-empty game cautious, out of the trend of rising first and then suppression finally closed down, but still standing above the moving average group, Shanghai lead may continue the trend of high shock in the short term.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] lead rose slightly overnight and the spot purchasing enthusiasm of lead in Shanghai closed down slightly compared with that of last week.
In terms of zinc, overnight Shanghai zinc recorded a small negative column, the upper 5-day moving average formed compression, the lower Bollinger Road under the rail to provide support, KDJ opening narrowed. Strong domestic economic data boosted the trend of domestic metals. Fundamentally, under the disturbance of the epidemic in the consumer side, the holiday of northern galvanizing enterprises dragged down some consumption in advance, but the supply-side TC slipped again to limit its decline.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the short thinking continues the weak concussion of Zinc in Shanghai.
In terms of nickel, the downstream consumption of stainless steel is better than the expected level in the same period in previous years, and generally speaking, the demand for nickel is well supported; the fundamental performance of nickel itself is stable, and the comprehensive performance of the domestic electrolytic nickel market is better than that of nickel pig iron, with the increase in the price of stainless steel. the price of high nickel pig iron also shows signs of slight improvement; in addition, the procurement cycle of the new energy industry is ahead of schedule, so that nickel sulfate consumption performance is good, and raw materials are in short supply.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the impact of the "take-off" of ferrochromium prices on the Ferro-nickel market is more complicated. The spot price of stainless steel rose in Synchronize.
In terms of black, threads fell nearly 1.3%, hot rolls fell nearly 1.5%, coking coal fell nearly 2.1%, coke nearly 3.4%, iron ore fell nearly 1%, stainless steel rose nearly 0.8%, iron ore fluctuated throughout the day after iron ore rose in early trading yesterday, and the price in the port spot market in early trading was 10-20 yuan / ton higher than last Friday. At the beginning of the week, the enthusiasm of the steel inquiry is general; the merchants wait and see more, and the overall market transaction is general. The epidemic situation in Xingtai area of Hebei Province has been gradually brought under control, and transportation may be gradually liberalized in the near future, but Shijiazhuang area is still under control. According to SMM, some local steel enterprises have gradually smothered the blast furnace, and it is expected that the output of hot metal will begin to decline in the near future, and the purchasing rhythm of steel mills may be affected to a certain extent. However, taking into account the recent two phases of Australian iron ore out of Hong Kong to continue the downward trend, the amount of imported ore to Hong Kong before the Spring Festival holiday may be difficult to see a significant increase, superimposed steel enterprises before the festival replenishment may be expected to accelerate, imported ore prices still have some support.
"[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the black system is weakening as a whole, but the space below is limited.
Crude oil rose nearly 0.9 per cent in the previous period, while international oil prices fell slightly on Monday as a stronger dollar, concerns about a surge in global cases and a slow vaccination process outweighed the impact of better-than-expected fourth-quarter economic growth figures in China. Analysts point to economic concerns caused by the epidemic, a stronger dollar and more pessimistic investor sentiment as reasons why Brent crude prices are about $3 lower than last Wednesday.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold rose nearly 0.7%, Shanghai silver rose nearly 2.4%, and international spot gold rose slightly on Monday, breaking from the one-and-a-half-month low hit earlier, as expectations of more fiscal stimulus in the United States boosted gold's attractiveness as a hedge against inflation. Analysts point out that the new US administration will provide more stimulus measures, and that Fed policy is unlikely to become more assertive in the future.
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
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