[hot] Photovoltaic plate erupts again! Silicon material shortage 60% capacity will be locked in advance next year

In early trading today, the three major stock indexes opened lower collectively. According to data around 09:40, the Shanghai Composite Index opened 0.34% lower at 3351.79 points, the Shenzhen Composite Index opened 0.26% lower at 13879.24 points, and the gem Index opened 0.33% lower at 2811.55 points. Among them, the concept of photovoltaic and wind power has risen, Tianwo Technology and Oriental Energy have risen by the daily limit, and stocks such as Goodway, Oriental Sunrise and Dier Laser have risen one after another.

According to a recent report by Polaris Solar Photovoltaic Network, up to now, the five major silicon giants, namely, Asian Silicon Industry, Jiangsu Zhongneng & Xinjiang Xiexin New Energy, Xinjiang Daquan, Tongwei Stock and New Special Energy, have signed up 867300 tons of silicon, equivalent to about 22.6-237000 tons by 2021. Four companies, Tongwei, Jiangsu Zhongneng, Xinjiang Daquan and Asian silicon industry, have put forward plans to expand production of more than 200,000 tons this year, but the release of production capacity in 2021 is limited. According to Lu Jinbiao, deputy director of the expert committee of the Silicon Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, there may be an increase of more than 30,000 tons in 2021. If the domestic output of silicon material is about 400000 tons next year, 60% silicon material will be locked in advance in 2021.

In recent years, with the general trend of global carbon emission reduction and the acceleration of renewable energy substitution, Zheshang Securities believes that the current process of global carbon emission reduction is accelerating. China has announced that it will strive to peak carbon emissions by 2030, achieve carbon neutralization by 2060, and account for 25 per cent of primary energy consumption by 2030. EU member states have agreed to increase the 2030 emission reduction target from 40 per cent to 55 per cent. The victory of Joe Biden in the US presidential election is expected to return to the Paris Agreement, which is expected to accelerate the pace of new energy. The new global carbon reduction target is expected to accelerate the substitution of new energy for traditional energy, and photovoltaic market demand is expected to accelerate growth.

The accelerated development of the photovoltaic market has led to the continued popularity of silicon raw materials. Societe Generale Securities pointed out that photovoltaic demand will remain strong in 2021, and as the silicon material gap continues to expand, many silicon wafer companies choose to lock in silicon materials through long monomers to ensure a stable supply of raw materials. At present, according to PVinfolink estimates, 79% of silicon production capacity has been locked up by silicon wafer companies. Superimposed silicon wafer enterprises have expanded production one after another, and the decline in silicon prices has continued to narrow since December. Recently, prices have stabilized and rebounded, and prices have entered a clear upward channel. Prices are expected to rise marginally in the fourth quarter of 2020 and the third to fourth quarters of 2021.