SMM9 March 29 News: Tuesday, the overall reduction of domestic commodity positions, the trend is slightly differentiated. The whole non-ferrous metals market was red. By the end of the day, Shanghai Tin rose 2.65%, Shanghai lead rose 2.6%, Shanghai Zinc rose 2.3%, Shanghai Aluminum rose 1.65%, Shanghai Nickel rose 1.1%, Shanghai Copper rose 0.1%, and the dollar index continued to decline. Overnight, the US stock market continued to rise sharply, depressing the safe-haven demand of the dollar, putting pressure on the dollar, but the support near the 94 gate is strong. Markets are waiting to see the first debate of US presidential candidates and the progress of the US stimulus package. Analysts point out that if the debate puts Trump on the defensive and Biden continues to take the lead, it could cause people to sell their dollars. The market will also usher in a series of economic data, including Tuesday's consumer confidence data, Thursday's manufacturing survey and consumer data, and Friday's non-farm payrolls report to gauge the health of the US economy in the run-up to the election.
In terms of aluminum, aluminum prices are expected to operate under pressure in the second half of October, or show a high decline, and the upside space is relatively limited. In addition, we should pay attention to the impact of factors such as the US election, changes in US stocks and Sino-US trade relations on market sentiment.
[SMM monthly Outlook] comes back after the festival to focus on changes in consumption and contract positions. Aluminum prices may fall high in October.
In terms of lead, Shanghai lead recorded Erlianyang, the KDJ index was further exposed upward, the technical side showed a trend of stopping falling and stabilizing, and the consumption downstream of the fundamentals was more active than in the previous period. At night, we pay attention to whether Shanghai lead can continue to break through the 20-day moving average station above 15200 yuan / ton.
[brief Review of lead in SMM period] Shanghai lead newspaper Erlianyang pays attention to the 20-day moving average at night.
In terms of zinc, the tight supply of zinc ore or transmission to the smelter profit decline, squeeze the production enthusiasm of the smelter, superimposed future consumption is worth looking forward to, give some support to zinc prices, zinc prices are expected to be mainly strong shocks in October.
[SMM monthly Outlook] consumption increases steadily and zinc prices fluctuate strongly in October.
In terms of black, thread rose 0.14%, hot coil rose 0.22%, stainless steel fell 0.42%, coke rose 2.33%, coke rose 1.63%, iron ore rose 1.43%, hot coil, according to research, the overall acceptance of orders in October is not as hot as September. Combined with the reflection of the market, the peak season is not prosperous, the peak season falling prices are really hammered, the market mentality has also undergone a 180-degree change, more than caught off guard. Coupled with the weakening of orders taken by steel mills in October, the reduction of the willingness to raise prices, and the continuous accumulation of reserves during the National Day short holiday, it is expected that the market mentality in October will continue the short trend in September. Traders are willing to reduce inventory, and spot prices continue to be under pressure.
Crude oil rose 0.45% in the previous period, raising expectations that members of Congress and the White House are close to reaching a new stimulus package to revive the country's economy. House Democrats unveiled a $2.2 trillion fiscal stimulus package, (HEROES Act), on the evening of Monday, Sept. 28. Pelosi said it was a compromise that reduced the cost of economic aid.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold rose 1.53% and Shanghai silver rose 2.15%. International gold prices held steady on Tuesday, while the US dollar fell from a two-month high, and investors waited to see the first election debate of the US presidential candidate and the progress of the latest US bill to mitigate the impact of the epidemic. The dollar held steady against a basket of currencies on Tuesday as traders watched the first debate between US presidential candidates and the progress of the US stimulus package.
Closing during the day, contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
Today's capital flow
With the holiday approaching, the Mandarin Commodity Index reduced its positions by more than 740000 hands and lost more than 5.2 billion of its funds. Non-ferrous plate blood loss of more than 1 billion, barely floating red Shanghai copper and continuously strong Shanghai aluminum both significantly reduced positions, losing 454 million and 332 million funds respectively. Chemical products in the PTA warehouse reduction of more than 110000 hands, the chemical sector also suffered 1 billion capital rejection.
