[summary of SMM Morning meeting] the supply of the primary lead smelter is tight.

2020.7.27

Summary of lead Morning meeting:

Futures market:

Last Friday, Lun lead opened at US $1829 / tonne. During the Asian session, Lun lead fluctuated downward, reaching a low of US $1808 / tonne, then stabilized and recovered its decline, reaching a high of US $1841.5 / tonne, nearing the close of trading, and the overall weakness of non-ferrous metals. Lun lead diving gave up its gains and finally closed at 1810.5 US dollars / ton, down 0.98 per cent. (bullish)

Last Friday, Shanghai lead opened at 14970 yuan / tonne. At the beginning of trading, Shanghai lead quickly rose to 15125 yuan / tonne. At the end of the session, Lun lead diving led to an accelerated decline in the domestic market. Shanghai lead was finally reported at 14945 yuan / ton, down 0.2 per cent. (bullish)

Spot fundamentals:

Last week, the mainstream spot operation was 14750-15100 yuan / ton. According to SMM, market trading is good this week, downstream bargain-on-demand procurement, smelter supply is relatively tight, as of last Friday, the average price of SMM1# lead in the market rose 50 yuan / ton out of the factory. In the trade market, the supply of goods in the market is relatively abundant, and the spot price has declined. As of last Friday, the domestic lead common brand lead contract is 30-50 yuan / ton; in the recycled lead market, the price of waste batteries is high, and corporate profits are low. As of last Friday, the mainstream quotation of tax recycled refined lead left the factory at an average price discount of 2008 yuan / ton for SMM1# lead, and a few even reported to flat water.

As of last Friday, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots in the five places reached 42000 tons, a decrease of 5700 tons compared with the previous period.

Lead price forecast today:

The trend of Lun lead is weak, the 20-day moving average has broken down, and the recent macro environment has deteriorated, so it is necessary to guard against the further decline of Lun lead. Shanghai lead continued high shock, continuous many daily newspapers increased the shadow line, the upward pressure is greater, short-term shock consolidation is mainly expected.

SMM1# lead prices are expected to be flat today.