[2019.10.22 minutes of Nickel Internal Morning meeting] Nickel prices continue to weaken spot trading of light stainless steel and falling nickel prices

At the macro level, the dollar index closed slightly higher yesterday. But the dollar index hit a three-month low in trading yesterday as sterling hit a nearly five-month high against the dollar. Markets seem reassured that the possibility of a no-deal Brexit has fallen significantly. Earlier, the British Parliament postponed a vote on the Brexit agreement, adding more twists and turns to the Brexit drama. The Fed will hold a policy meeting from October 29 to 30 as it enters a two-week period of silence. Market participants are almost entirely confident that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, in line with the rate cuts in July and September.

Nickel spot: on October 21, Russian nickel was 300 yuan / ton higher than Shanghai Nickel 1911, and Jinchuan Nickel was 500-600 yuan / ton higher than Shanghai Nickel 1911 contract. Today, after the opening of nickel prices, quickly fell below 60 antenna support, to 128800 near to stop falling consolidation, but the market trading atmosphere is light, because the supply of negotiable goods is tight, it is difficult for traders to replenish warehouses at low prices, and downstream in the falling market, more in the wait and see. Subsequently, nickel prices continued to fall to around 127800 to stop falling fluctuations, for spot trading stimulus is limited, the whole morning market transaction atmosphere is weak. Jinchuan's ex-factory price is 128500 yuan / ton, 2800 yuan / ton lower than last Friday. The mainstream transaction is in the range of 128300 yuan / ton to 128600 yuan / ton.

Stainless steel: October 21 Wuxi area quotation: state 3042B cut edge volume price 1605016250 yuan / ton, private 3042B rough edge volume price 1585015950 yuan / ton. 304 / NO. 1 five feet at 15000-15100 yuan / ton. In the morning, the price of cold and hot rolling in Wuxi market was lower than that of last Friday, the price of cold and hot rolling fell 50 yuan / ton, the transaction was light, the downstream was more wait and see, and the short-term price was weak and stable. For 10:30 SHFE SS2002 contract selling price 14890 yuan / ton, Wuxi stainless steel spot water 780-930 yuan / ton (spot edge cutting = rough edge + 170 yuan / ton)

On the inventory side, Lunni stocks on 21 October were 88104 tons, an increase of 1524 tons over 18 October.

Price judgment: due to the general consensus in the market that this round of inventory decline has become recessive and lack of real consumption drive, the recent short power, this round of falling momentum is relatively strong, it is expected that this round of rebound will take time, wait and see 123000 yuan support. The fundamentals have not changed much, and the tight situation of Shanghai nickel negotiable deliverables in the later stage still needs to be vigilant. Lunni closed in the small negative line, above a number of pressure averages, has fallen below the Boll line under the track, today focused on Lunni can hold 16000 US dollars / ton integer level. Overnight Shanghai nickel closed in the small Yin Cross, the whole in 126000 yuan / ton first-line concussion operation, today pay attention to Shanghai nickel can hold 126000 yuan / ton barrier.