[SMM survey] September stainless steel industry PMI comprehensive index month-on-month decline at the beginning of October by 3 series output or continue to weaken

SMM, 8 Oct:

The final value of the PMI comprehensive index of the stainless steel industry in September was 48.13%, lower than the rise and fall line, down 1.47% from August, and 0.47% lower than the expected value. Due to Indonesia's implementation of an early mining ban at the end of August, nickel prices skyrocketed, stainless steel plants in September are in a difficult situation, stainless steel increases can not keep up with cost increases, most steel mills without RKEF face losses, and the cost is getting higher and higher how to ship goods is a big problem, it can be said that from the situation before National Day, the expected reduction in production is on the rise. The production index is 47.76%. Most of the stainless steel plants maintained normal production in September when there was still a stock of low-cost raw materials in the early stage, and the output did not decrease significantly. The decline was mainly due to the fine-tuning of some steel mills and the small reduction in some small steel mills. New order index 47.76%, compared with the overall high inventory and high scheduling of stainless steel factory, the order situation appears to be relatively inferior, there is no "gold nine silver 10" exuberant, but the downstream of stainless steel also has the ability to passively accept the price increase, demand has not been frustrated by the price increase of stainless steel for the time being. The purchasing volume index is 49.05%, and the raw material inventory index is 37.18%, all of which are lower than the rise and fall line. During the shock of the high nickel price, the steel mill and the nickel pig iron factory played a fierce game, but under the persistence of the nickel pig iron plant and the capital operation of the traders, the high price transaction was gradually implemented, and the cost level of the stainless steel plant rose in an all-round way. In September, the purchase price index was as high as 95.40%.

In October, the initial value of the PMI comprehensive index in the stainless steel industry was 46.23%, 1.9% lower than the final value in September, of which the production index was the most obvious, with a reduction of 11.94% to 35.83%. The high price of nickel pig iron was gradually implemented, and there were still signs of continuing to raise prices until National Day. It is expected that the probability of production reduction in non-integrated stainless steel plants will rise significantly next month under tremendous operating pressure. At the end of September, a stainless steel plant in East China announced plans to reduce production, which is expected to affect the output of 300 series of 20,000 tons, while the northern stainless steel plant also has a tendency to reduce the proportion of 3 series. The new order index is 49.05%, 1.29% higher than the final value in September, and the product inventory index 52.06% is 2.06% higher than the final value in September. The surveyed enterprises said that the order situation in October did not improve significantly, not only the social inventory is high, each steel mill also has some in-plant inventory, the later cost pressure and shipment pressure are more prominent. The purchasing volume index is 46.95%, and the raw material inventory index is 49.05% lower than the rise and fall line. The decrease of purchasing volume is mainly caused by the decrease of the proportion of 3 series and the reduction of production in some 300 series stainless steel plants. It is very important for steel mills to stabilize procurement and stable production, but in view of the high cost of products in the later stage, once the market falls, they will lose a lot of money, so they are purchased according to rigid demand, and the stock of raw materials in steel mills is on the low side. some steel mills focus on increasing the proportion of scrap stainless steel.

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