[minutes of SMM aluminum internal morning meeting] key points of aluminum prices: short-term attention to the progress of Sino-US relations, medium-term attention to accelerated depot expectations during the second peak consumer season

6.19 minutes of SMM internal aluminum morning meeting

Surface: Lun aluminum yesterday's harvest Zhongyang line almost no shadow line, the closing price was at $1778 / ton, up $19.5 or 1.11%; the main contract 1908 closed at 13875 yuan / ton overnight, 65 yuan or 0.47% higher than the daytime closing price, the position was reduced by 1862 hands, and the short position was mainly risk averse. Yesterday, the heads of state of China and the United States said by telephone that they would communicate on Sino-US trade at the G20 summit, with the dollar rising and basic metals collectively rising. Macro: with a net investment of 80 billion yuan on Tuesday, commodity prices in 67 of China's 70 large and medium-sized cities rose month-on-month in May, compared with 67 in April, leading Xi'an in rising 2 per cent. The national property market ended the "small Yangchun" market in March and April and began to cool down significantly. Overseas: ECB President Draghi said additional stimulus measures would be needed if the outlook did not improve; the RBA also said further easing was likely in the future.

Fundamentals: cost side, after the production reduction caused by the shutdown of environmental protection, the ore supply in the surrounding areas of Shanxi Province is loosened, superimposed alumina prices give profits, attract alumina enterprises to resume production, alumina prices still have about 150 yuan to fall in space; on the consumer side, aluminum rod consumption is currently outstanding, with aluminum prices falling aluminum rod processing fees all the way up to the highest level of the year; Aluminum plate and strip enterprises reflect that with the switch from peak season to off-season, customers' enthusiasm to pick up goods is weakened, and finished product inventory is on the rise. Spot: yesterday morning, the trading price of Wuxi market in Shanghai was between 13840 yuan and 13850 yuan / ton, and the price fell by 40 yuan / ton in the afternoon compared with yesterday. The position of flat water to rise 10 yuan / ton was maintained on the plate surface. Yesterday, a large household still did not have a purchase notice on the wire. At the same time, from the point of view of the change of the month, the aluminum price was hung upside down and the rising water state remained unchanged. The holder was very active in shipping, and some middlemen tried to replenish the goods at a low price. Although the two sides inquire and quote actively, but the actual transaction is general. Conclusion: in the context of low alumina prices and weakening consumption, aluminum prices are relatively weak, paying attention to the progress of Sino-US relations in the short term and the accelerated storage forecast in the middle of the second consumption season.

(SMM Liang Xuan)