Key Macroeconomic Indicators for Base Metal Prices (2017-7-6)

SHANGHAI, Jul. 6 (SMM) –Market will eye crude oil stocks, US ADP employment in June and last week’s initial jobless claims on Thursday.  

The US private sector may add 183,000 jobs in June, much lower than 253,000 growth in May. However, this will not shake optimistic over June non-farm payrolls to be released on Friday. This is because ADP employment report has diverged with non-farm payrolls in recent months.  

Minutes of the US Fed’s June meeting showed most Fed officials are worried over inflation, citing signs of softening inflation. But, the US Fed reiterated support for gradual interest rate hike and opinions were split over when to begin cutting USD 4.5 trillion balance sheet. The Us dollar index slid following release of the minutes. 

The ECB will release minutes of its June meeting tonight. ECB President hinted last week that the ECB will begin cutting bond purchases in the future. Investors need to closely watch whether there is a change of tone in the minutes.  

API US crude oil stocks fell unexpectedly last week, pushing US crude oil futures contract for August delivery. But, gains in oil prices may slow down in the near term due to technical corrections and negative news.  

See SMM price forecast, please click: SMM Price Outlook for Base Metals on SHFE (Jul. 6, 2017)