[SMM Analysis] Weak Overseas Demand Slows Exports; Lithium Manganese Oxide's Growth Dividend Temporarily Fades

China’s lithium manganese oxide industry boasts an extremely high self‑sufficiency rate with sufficient production capacity. Domestic consumption dominates market demand, while exports serve only as a supplementary channel, resulting in very low import dependence. According to customs data, China’s imports of lithium manganese oxide stood at merely 89.79 tonnes in 2025, and no import was recorded from January to April 2026. This fully proves that domestic capacity can satisfy domestic demand, and the industry hardly relies on overseas supply of cathode materials. By contrast, the overseas market for lithium manganese oxide has experienced dramatic swings in export volume in recent years, which has become a non‑negligible variable for the sector.

Looking back on export performance over recent years, overseas markets provided limited support for domestic lithium manganese oxide. The landscape reversed in 2024. The rapid expansion of electric two‑wheeler, portable energy storage and power tool industrial chains in Southeast and South Asia drove an explosive surge in China’s lithium manganese oxide export demand. Total exports reached 2405.03 tonnes for the full‑year, jumping by 1597.15% year‑on‑year. Export growth continued in 2025 albeit at a slower pace. Annual exports totalled 3275.89 tonnes, representing a 36.21% year‑on‑year increase. However in 2026, overseas end‑use consumption softened. Some overseas battery makers entered an inventory‑destocking cycle after completing raw‑material restocking in the early stage, leading to an obvious slowdown in overseas procurement. China exported 929.3 tonnes of lithium manganese oxide from January to April, dropping 34.86% year‑on‑year. The overseas market swiftly shifted from high prosperity to short‑term downturn. In terms of export destinations, China’s lithium manganese oxide exports are mainly shipped to Southeast Asia, South Asia and Latin America, supporting local industrial chains including electric two‑wheelers, small‑scale energy storage and power tools, whereas Europe and America account for a relatively small share.

On the domestic front, lithium manganese oxide prices closely track spot prices of upstream lithium carbonate and lack independent market drivers. Following drastic ups and downs over the past two years, prices have staged a phased rebound at present. On the supply side, major domestic lithium manganese oxide producers maintain relatively stable operating rates and give priority to fulfilling domestic long‑term contract orders. Overall supply is ample with no large‑scale production cuts across the industry, creating a loose supply landscape. Nevertheless, product differentiation persists: generic standard‑grade lithium manganese oxide is abundant in supply, while high‑rate, long‑cycle modified high‑end products remain tight.

Domestic demand presents prominent structural divergence. The electric two‑wheeler sector remains the largest downstream pillar for lithium manganese oxide, with steady long‑term contract orders underpinning the market. By comparison, the 3C consumer electronics sector is in off‑season with sluggish end‑product shipments and tepid procurement for consumer‑grade lithium manganese oxide. Downstream battery manufacturers keep low‑inventory operations and adopt just‑in‑time procurement strategies, showing little willingness for proactive stockpiling and no large‑scale concentrated restocking activities. Overseas buyers are now in a wait‑and‑see mood. Foreign battery producers prioritize consuming existing inventories, resulting in fewer newly‑signed orders. Hence exports cannot deliver strong stimulus to domestic spot markets.

To sum up, the domestic lithium manganese oxide market is in a weak supply‑demand balance. Prices have rebounded driven by lithium carbonate, yet substantial large‑scale restocking from end users has not materialized. The export market suffered demand cooling in the first half of 2026. Two key variables need close attention going forward. First, subsequent movements of lithium carbonate prices will directly shape costs and quotations for lithium manganese oxide. Second, inventory destocking progress of overseas two‑wheeler and energy‑storage end markets. Once overseas inventories are digested, export orders may see a recovery in the second half of the year. Domestically, market participants will monitor whether peak‑season stock preparation from consumer electronics and electric two‑wheelers can be delivered in Q3. If domestic and overseas demand improves simultaneously, lithium manganese oxide market is set for further improvement. On the contrary, sustained overseas demand weakness together with disappointing domestic peak‑season performance may push lithium manganese oxide prices back into range‑bound oscillation.