[SMM Iron & Steel] Mercado de importação de tarugos do Sudeste Asiático enfraquece enquanto os compradores aguardam ofertas mais baixas

The most-traded HRC contract fluctuated today, closing at 3,279 with a slight intraday decline of 0.3%. This week, cold-rolled and hot-rolled prices continued to weaken, and overall transaction volumes remained low. In terms of supply, the impact from mill line maintenance decreased WoW, leading to a slight increase in total HRC production. On the demand side, apparent demand dropped MoM. Regarding inventory, according to SMM statistics, HRC social inventory across 86 warehouses nationwide (large sample) reached 4.3757 million mt, up 84,500 mt or 1.97% WoW, and up 43.10% YoY on a lunar calendar basis. By region, all markets saw inventory buildup WoW, with the Northeast market recording a relatively large buildup. Cost side, the ninth round of coke price increases was implemented this week. Influenced by raw material market news, costs showed a pattern of strength early on and weakness later. Looking ahead, although the market has initiated a tenth round of coke price hikes, hot metal output has slowly pulled back from its peak, and cost support is expected to remain flat compared to earlier estimates. From the HRC supply-demand perspective, the current imbalance continues to accumulate. Amid off-season demand, inventory pressure is expected to persist and weigh on prices. Combined with remaining cost-side support, downside room is relatively small. HRC prices are likely to show a bottom-consolidation pattern next week, with the most-traded HRC contract moving in the 3,250–3,330 range.

[Turquia] A demanda doméstica e de exportação por vergalhão turco permaneceu fraca ao longo desta semana, levando seu preço de exportação a cair para 575 USD/tonelada FOB, principalmente devido a quedas contínuas nos estoques das usinas e à falta de pedidos firmes de compra, enquanto as ofertas de bobina laminada a quente foram reduzidas para 585 USD/tonelada FOB. O mercado interno segue estagnado, com pouca expectativa de recuperação significativa da demanda neste verão. Devido à lenta retomada da demanda da construção civil, as grandes usinas mantêm amplos estoques de vergalhão para entrega, enquanto os comerciantes hesitam em repor os estoques devido ao fluxo de caixa fraco e aos altos custos de crédito.

A tabela a seguir mostra a movimentação dos metais ferrosos e não ferrosos na SHFE e na DCE em 03 de julho de 2026