Guinea Bauxite: May Shipments Plunge 21% MoM

SMM June 6,

Guinea bauxite port shipments grew 28.7%-40.2% YoY in January-April, with daily dispatch rates rising to 62.7-71.7 mt/day, reflecting robust capacity expansion. However, May shipments fell to just 1,749.6 mt, plunging 21.1% MoM, with daily rates dropping to 56.4 mt/day and YoY growth narrowing to 10.9%. Key driver: elevated freight rates at approximately USD 36/t pushed mine costs above selling prices, forcing voluntary shipment cuts under loss-making pressure.

Entering June, mine cost pressures show no significant easing. Combined with market expectations that Guinea's bauxite export quota policy will be promulgated and the impending onset of the rainy season, bauxite shipment volumes may decline further. Driven by supply reduction expectations and cost support, recent Guinea bauxite CIF prices have edged up, with 45/3 grade actual transactions settling around USD 70/t. In the near term, high domestic bauxite inventories and elevated Guinea bauxite costs are expected to continue weighing against each other. Close attention should be paid to the implementation of Guinea's bauxite policy, which is anticipated to add further upward momentum to bauxite prices upon rollout.