May 22, 2026
Gold is no longer merely a traditional hedge against crisis; rather, it is reclaiming its role as a monetary anchor in the global financial system. This is the key conclusion reached by Incrementum AG in the latest edition of its renowned “In Gold We Trust” report. Authors Ronald-Peter Stöferle and Mark Valek view the recent price swings not as speculative exaggeration, but as a symptom of profound remonetization. Driven by geopolitical fragmentation, de-dollarization, and dwindling confidence in fiat currencies, the gold market is now entering its most dynamic phase.
Price targets shattered: On the way to $8,900?
The market dynamics speak for themselves: With a gain of 64.4%, gold recorded its strongest annual performance since 1979 in 2025 and hit a record high of $5,595 per ounce in January 2026. The “golden decade” proclaimed by Incrementum in 2020—with a price target at the time of $4,800 by 2030—has thus become a reality ahead of schedule. In light of this acceleration, analysts are now outlining an alternative inflation scenario in which gold could rise to $8,900 by the end of the decade.
The Fundamentals: Central Banks, Debt, and a Potential Revaluation
The report identifies three major structural pillars supporting the long-term bull market:
- Central Bank Purchases: Following three record years with purchases exceeding 1,000 tons each, central banks acquired a substantial 863 tons in 2025 as well. The signal is clear: governments are increasingly positioning gold as a neutral reserve asset.
- Soaring debt: With global debt at a record high of $348 trillion (including $39 trillion in the U.S. alone) and deeply negative real yields, the traditional government bond is losing its role as a “risk-free” haven. Investors are being systematically pushed toward alternative stores of value.
- Revaluation of U.S. reserves: The U.S. continues to report its gold holdings on its balance sheet at a mere $42.22 per ounce. Incrementum no longer considers an official revaluation to market price (most recently near $4,600) to be merely a thought experiment, but rather a growing political possibility.
The Next Wave: Institutional Capital Is Still Missing
Despite massive price gains, the market is by no means overcrowded, according to Incrementum. Privately held gold reserves account for an estimated 2.7% of global financial assets. Analysts therefore expect a shift in demand dynamics: While central banks have been the primary buyers so far, institutional capital is now likely to flow into the market on a broad scale. This phase of broad public participation is historically considered the longest and strongest of a bull market.
Short-term outlook: Volatility as a side effect
However, a straight-line rise is not expected. For early summer 2026, Incrementum forecasts a volatile consolidation within a range of $4,500 to $4,950 per ounce. Higher bond yields or liquidity bottlenecks could certainly trigger sharp pullbacks. In the context of the “In Gold We Trust” report, however, such fluctuations do not represent a break in the trend, but rather the normal breathing room of a market that is returning to its core monetary function within a fragile financial system.
Source：https://goldinvest.de/en/new-forecast-is-gold-heading-toward-usd8-900-per-ounce
