[China Iron Ore Brief] China Iron Ore Concentrates Prices May Fluctuate at Highs Next Week

This week, ferrous metals continued their rebound trend, with finished products outperforming raw materials. Early in the week, the rally was primarily driven by raw materials, as uncertainty over the Middle East situation combined with market rumors of restricted Mongolian coal shipments boosted the coal sector, with other ferrous metals following suit. Mid-week, the General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the "Opinions on Achieving Higher-Level and Higher-Quality Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction," which covered the steel industry, strengthening market expectations for supply-side reform. In the latter half of the week, data on the five major steel products were released, showing increases in both supply and demand along with inventory drawdowns, with finished products rallying more strongly than raw materials. Spot market side, as futures rose consecutively, end-user purchasing enthusiasm increased somewhat, the spot-futures price spread narrowed mid-week, and there was bargain-hunting activity in spot cargo...

Recently, China's EMM market has exhibited a distinct dual pattern of "strong cost support with loosening at highs," with intensifying supply-demand and cost dynamics in the industry. On one hand, the tight balance in supply and demand for the core raw material manganese ore persisted, compounded by elevated prices of other auxiliary materials, collectively pushing up EMM smelting costs and providing solid floor support for manganese prices. On the other hand, traditional month-end demand weakness and tightening liquidity, coupled with correlated downward movements of linked products along the industry chain, led to a rational pullback in EMM prices that had been consolidating at highs, with market sentiment gradually shifting from firm stability to cautious wait-and-see.

[SMM Steel] Hoa Phat Group aims to raise its steel pipe market share to 38–40%, up from around 35% currently, following the commissioning of its Long An plant (400,000 mt/year), lifting total capacity to 1.2 mln mt/year. Q1 2026 pipe sales rose 30% YoY to 241,000 mt, significantly outpacing industry growth (+7%), while market share increased by 5 percentage points YoY. The company plans to focus on large-diameter pipes for infrastructure projects, targeting less competitive segments. Expansion will depend on actual construction demand, while competition is intensifying as peers such as Nam Kim Steel also ramp up capacity.