Metals Fell Broadly; SHFE Aluminum, SHFE Gold, Platinum, Palladium, and Casting Aluminum Dropped Over 1%; Polysilicon Rose Over 2%; Lithium Carbonate Led Declines [SMM Daily Review]

SMM April 21 News:

Metals Market:

As of the daytime close, domestic market base metals mostly fell, with SHFE lead being the only one to rise, up 0.48%. SHFE aluminum led the decline with a drop of 1.23%, while the rest of the metals fell less than 1%. The alumina front-month contract rose 1.95%, and the casting aluminum alloy front-month contract fell 1.36%.

In addition, the lithium carbonate front-month contract fell 2.84%, the polysilicon front-month contract rose 2.56%, and the silicon metal front-month contract fell 0.35%. The Europe containerized freight front-month contract rose 1.37% to 2,143.4.

On the ferrous metals front, all rose except stainless steel. Stainless steel fell 1%, while hot-rolled coil and rebar both rose over 0.7%, with hot-rolled coil up 0.72% and rebar up 0.76%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 1.53% and coke rose 2.42%.

On the overseas market front, as of 15:03, overseas base metals all fell except LME lead. LME lead rose 0.28%, while the rest of the metals fell less than 1%.

On the precious metals front, as of 15:03, COMEX gold fell 0.7% and COMEX silver fell 1.35%. In China, SHFE gold fell 1.08% and SHFE silver fell 2.75%.

In addition, the platinum front-month contract fell 1.08% and the palladium front-month contract fell 1.01%.

Market data as of 15:03 today

Macro Front

China:

[Good Start! China's Raw Material Industry Value-Added Up 4.6% YoY in Q1] According to a press conference held by the State Council Information Office this morning, China's raw material industry achieved a good start in Q1. Data showed that in Q1, the value-added of the raw material industry was up 4.6% YoY. Among them: the value-added of the petrochemical and chemical industry was up 7.4% YoY, and the value-added of the non-ferrous metals industry was up 2.6% YoY. Zhang Yunming, Vice Minister of MIIT, stated that in Q1, the cement industry reduced and retired nearly 30 million mt of capacity through capacity replacement with reduction. Meanwhile, the revenue of the green building materials industry grew steadily, and the number of certified green building material products increased 5% compared to the end of 2025. Innovation achievements in the raw material sector also accelerated, with China's independently developed T1200-grade ultra-high-strength carbon fiber industrial-grade product making its global debut, expected to be deeply applied in strategic emerging industries such as aerospace, low-altitude economy, and humanoid robots. (CCTV News)

[MIIT: Fully Activate the Innovation Engine, Accelerate Frontier Material Development and Key Material Breakthroughs] Zhang Yunming, Vice Minister of MIIT, stated at the State Council Information Office press conference that in Q1, they implemented the new round of work plans for stabilizing growth in ten key industries in detail, focused on promoting the optimization and upgrading of capacity structure, and the raw material industry achieved a good start, with more vigorous transformation steps and a stronger industrial foundation. Next, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is expected to thoroughly implement the deployment of the Outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan, adhere to a combination of “strengthening the fundamentals” and “fostering the new,” and enhance overall planning and policy supply. On the one hand, it will focus on solidifying the foundation for upgrading traditional industries, promoting optimization of existing capacity and a green, safe transition; on the other hand, it will fully energize the innovation engine, accelerate the layout of frontier materials and breakthroughs in key materials, and provide more solid and reliable material support for developing new quality productive forces and advancing new-type industrialization. (Jinshi Data)

[MIIT: Q1 Industrial Robot Production up 33.2% YoY; Drones, AI Glasses, and More Becoming Increasingly Diverse]This morning, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to brief on industrial and information technology development in Q1 2026. In Q1, the application of new technologies such as artificial intelligence accelerated and expanded in the electronics and consumer goods industries; end-use products such as drones and AI glasses became increasingly diverse; and production of products such as industrial robots and integrated circuits rose 33.2% and 24.3% YoY, respectively. (CCTV News)

[PBOC Reverse Repo Operations Recorded a Net Injection of 4 billion yuan on the Day]The PBOC conducted 5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 1 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, it recorded a net injection of 4 billion yuan on the day. (Jinshi Data)

US dollar:

As of 15:03, the US dollar index was at 98.14, up 0.09%. Middle East tensions pushed up oil prices and supported the dollar; a plunge in US consumer confidence weighed on the real economy; and Japan’s manufacturing sector was under pressure. Meanwhile, Fed Chairman nominee Warsh was set to face a hearing, and how to balance interest rate cuts and inflation became the market focus. (Jinshi Data)

The US Congress will hold the first confirmation hearing for Fed Chairman nominee Warsh on Tuesday local time. Warsh will pledge to lawmakers to maintain strict independence on interest rate matters. According to opening remarks obtained in advance by Politico, Warsh said interest rate decisions must be strictly independent of political considerations, and monetary policy should not become a tool for short-term political objectives; he also stressed that the US Fed’s credibility comes from institutional constraints and policy discipline. Warsh said the central bank should listen to differing views, and politicians expressing opinions on interest rates is not a real threat; rather, it is the US Fed’s own discipline and rigorous approach that sustains its independent status. He emphasized that price stability is the US Fed’s shield and pledged to take full responsibility for it, “making no excuses and shirking no responsibility.”Regarding the continuous expansion of the US Fed's functional boundaries in the post-crisis era, Warsh also issued a warning, arguing that the Fed should not extend its reach into fiscal policy or social policy areas where it lacks statutory authority. The US Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to hold a confirmation hearing for Warsh at 10 PM Beijing time on April 21.

In addition, on April 21, according to Zhuifeng Trading Desk, Citi laid out clear bullish reasons for interest rate cuts in its latest research report, arguing that crude oil supply disruptions were only temporary disturbances and that the path to interest rate cuts, though bumpy, was clearly directional; Deutsche Bank, however, poured cold water on such optimism, warning that US Fed policy was already at a neutral position and was expected to maintain current interest rates indefinitely.

As the two major investment banks clashed in their views, the upcoming March retail sales data is set to become the key litmus test to break the deadlock. This data will not only reveal the true destructive impact of high oil prices on core consumption but will also directly determine the US Fed's near-term policy path. (Wall Street Insights)

On the macro front:

Data to be released today include the US March retail sales MoM, US February business inventory MoM, US March pending home sales index MoM, Germany's April ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, UK February three-month ILO unemployment rate, UK March unemployment rate, UK March jobless claims, Switzerland's March trade balance, and the Eurozone April ZEW Economic Sentiment Index. In addition, attention should also be paid to the US Senate Banking Committee's confirmation hearing on Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chairman, and European Central Bank President Lagarde's keynote speech at the 75th anniversary annual reception of the Association of German Banks. Furthermore, China is about to open a new round of refined oil price adjustment window.

On the crude oil front:

As of 15:03, oil prices in both markets fell together, with WTI down 1.05% and Brent down 0.73%. The market held optimistic expectations that US-Iran negotiations would continue this week.

According to information from maritime intelligence firm Tanker Trackers, a tanker belonging to the National Iranian Tanker Company returned to Iran via the relevant maritime blockade line after completing the offloading of approximately 2 million barrels of crude oil in Indonesia. The tanker is currently heading to Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export hub, and is expected to arrive on the 22nd local time. The tanker reportedly departed Iran in late March, heading for the Riau Islands in Indonesia. (CCTV News)

According to foreign media reports, gasoline prices in Australia fell for the third consecutive week as government measures eased the upward pressure on gas station prices triggered by the Iran war. According to data from the Australian Institute of Petroleum, in the week ending last Sunday, the national average gasoline price dropped about 5% to A$2.129 per liter (approximately $1.5279), but remained about 18% higher than at the outbreak of the conflict in early March. Diesel prices fell about 3% to A$3.089 per liter. It was reported that Canberra attempted to ease the domestic fuel crisis by sending delegations to communicate with major trading partners, covering oil transportation costs, relaxing diesel standards, cutting fuel taxes, and tapping into reserves. In addition, the government was conducting a publicity campaign aimed at encouraging Australians to reduce driving. Despite being a major energy producer and exporter, Australia still relied on imports from outside China for most of its refined fuel, and its fuel reserves were among the lowest in developed countries, making the country highly vulnerable to disruptions in global energy supply. (Jin Shi Data APP)

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