[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Indonesia’s Export Taxation Is Unlikely to Halt the Downtrend in SS; Stainless Steel Spot Prices Remained Stable, with Transactions Mainly Driven by Rigid Demand

Published: Mar 31, 2026 15:38
[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Indonesian Export Taxation Failed to Halt the SS Downtrend; Spot Stainless Steel Remained Stable, with Transactions Mainly Driven by Rigid Demand SMM News, March 31: SS futures continued to decline and pull back. Although news emerged about export taxation on Indonesian nickel products, dragged down by weaker SHFE nickel today, SS futures also fell in tandem, closing at 14,145 yuan/mt by the midday close. In the spot market, despite the decline in SS futures, the spot stainless steel market remained stable overall. Most traders kept quotes unchanged, while downstream end-users mainly maintained steady procurement based on rigid demand. The most-traded SS futures contract fluctuated. At 10:15 a.m., SS2605 was quoted at 14,365 yuan/mt, down 165 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 270-470 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi was unchanged; for cold-rolled trim-edge 304/2B coils, the average prices in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi were unchanged; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils in Wuxi were quoted flat; and cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan remained stable. The stainless steel market had entered the traditional peak consumption season. Transactions among downstream end-users remained stable, but market sentiment turned cautious. End-user enterprises lacked willingness to stockpile, and procurement was mainly driven by restocking as needed. The brisk trading pattern typically seen in the peak season had not emerged, and overall demand remained stable and neutral. Futures side, repeated disruptions from the Iran geopolitical conflict made its short-term impact on SS futures difficult to fully eliminate; however, recently, due to the conflict...

 

SMM reported on March 31 that SS futures continued to fall and pull back. Although news emerged about export taxes on Indonesian nickel products, dragged down by weaker SHFE nickel today, SS futures also moved lower and closed at 14,145 yuan/mt as of the midday close. In the spot market, although SS futures declined, the stainless steel spot market remained generally stable, with most traders keeping quotes steady, while downstream end-users mainly maintained stable procurement for rigid demand.

The most-traded SS futures contract fluctuated. At 10:15 a.m., SS2605 was quoted at 14,365 yuan/mt, down 165 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi stood in the 270-470 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi was unchanged; for cold-rolled burr-edge 304/2B coils, the average prices in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi were unchanged; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils in Wuxi were quoted flat; and cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan remained stable.

The stainless steel market has now entered the traditional peak consumption season. Transactions among downstream end-users remained stable, but market sentiment turned cautious. End-user enterprises showed little willingness to stockpile, with procurement mainly driven by restocking as needed, and the brisk trading pattern typically seen in the peak season has yet to emerge, leaving overall demand stable and neutral. On the futures side, repeated disruptions from the Iran geopolitical conflict made its short-term impact on SS futures difficult to fully eliminate. However, supported by expectations that the conflict may ease, together with stimulus from news related to Indonesian nickel product export tariffs and windfall taxes, SS futures held up well this week, but still failed to break out of the previous sideways movement range, with no clear breakout direction in the market. Supply and inventory side, stainless steel mills still maintained relatively high production schedules in the short term, and the high supply pattern remained unchanged. Coupled with relatively high recent arrivals, although downstream transactions stayed stable, end-users lacked willingness to stockpile, and stainless steel social inventory posted another slight inventory buildup this week. Pressure to digest market inventory remained heavy, which not only constrained the market to some extent, but also tested the pace of steel mill shipments. Cost side, recent gains in SHFE nickel prices pushed high-grade NPI quotes somewhat higher, but stainless steel mills themselves faced significant cost pressure, and the economic advantage of stainless steel scrap became more prominent. Mills showed low acceptance of high-priced NPI and maintained an overall cautious procurement stance. As a result, stainless steel production costs remained broadly stable without obvious fluctuations. Overall, the core contradiction in the stainless steel market this week lay in the mismatch among high supply, elevated inventory, and stable demand. Although the cost side provided some support, it was insufficient to drive finished steel prices higher. In addition, macro news remained highly uncertain, and overall market sentiment stayed cautious. Stainless steel prices are expected to mainly move sideways in the short term.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn
For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn
Related News
Vietnam Imposes 27.83% Temporary Tariff on Certain Chinese Hot-Rolled Steel Products
6 hours ago
Vietnam Imposes 27.83% Temporary Tariff on Certain Chinese Hot-Rolled Steel Products
Read More
Vietnam Imposes 27.83% Temporary Tariff on Certain Chinese Hot-Rolled Steel Products
Vietnam Imposes 27.83% Temporary Tariff on Certain Chinese Hot-Rolled Steel Products
On April 2, the Ministry of Industry and Trade issued Decision No. 612/QD-BCT, imposing a temporary anti-circumvention tariff of up to 27.83% on certain hot-rolled steel products from China. The measure applies to specific flat-rolled steel products (alloy or non-alloy), with thicknesses of 1.2–25.4mm and widths between 1,880mm and 2,300mm, that have not been further processed beyond hot rolling.
6 hours ago
Risks in the Ferrous Metals Sector Began to Accumulate [SMM Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report]
6 hours ago
Risks in the Ferrous Metals Sector Began to Accumulate [SMM Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report]
Read More
Risks in the Ferrous Metals Sector Began to Accumulate [SMM Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report]
Risks in the Ferrous Metals Sector Began to Accumulate [SMM Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report]
This week, ferrous metals were in the doldrums. The main logic during the week remained weakening cost support. On Tuesday, Iran proposed charging transit fees for the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump made conciliatory remarks, saying that “even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed, he would still be willing to end military action against Iran.” Market expectations for tighter crude oil supply weakened, and declines in the energy sector dragged down the coal sector, weakening the cost-side logic. During the week, inventories of the five major steel products continued to decline, but apparent demand remained at a low level for the same period in previous years, providing limited fundamental-driven momentum to futures. In the spot market, purchasing interest was average, mainly focused on restocking at low prices. Spot prices were relatively firm, and the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat......
6 hours ago
MMi Daily Iron Ore Report (April 3)
6 hours ago
MMi Daily Iron Ore Report (April 3)
Read More
MMi Daily Iron Ore Report (April 3)
MMi Daily Iron Ore Report (April 3)
Today, the DCE iron ore fluctuated in the doldrums, with the most-traded contract I2605 eventually closing at 799.5 yuan/mt, down 0.50% from the previous trading session. Spot prices fell by about 2-5 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in offering quotes, while steel mills mainly restocked to meet rigid demand; as of now, spot market transactions were mediocre.
6 hours ago
Register to Continue Reading
Gain access to the latest insights in metals and new energy
Already have an account?sign in here