Silicon Metal Transactions Remained in Stalemate, Polysilicon Market Sentiment Was Bearish [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM News, March 11:

Silicon coal

Prices: Silicon coal prices were largely stable this week. In Xinjiang, the average price of non-caking silicon coal was about 855 yuan/mt, while the price range of caking silicon coal was about 1,300-1,650 yuan/mt. In Inner Mongolia, the average price of silicon coal was about 1,260 yuan/mt. In Gansu, the average price of silicon mixed coal was about 930 yuan/mt, and granular coal averaged about 1,050 yuan/mt. In Shaanxi, the average price of silicon coal was about 850 yuan/mt.

Supply: Overall supply showed some contraction this week, mainly because some mines in Xinjiang suspended production for special reasons, and the timing of production resumptions remained uncertain, reducing overall supply under these circumstances.

Demand: The overall operating rate of downstream silicon plants was relatively stable MoM this week, and procurement of raw material silicon coal was mainly just-in-time procurement.

Silicon metal

Prices: Yesterday, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon stood at 9,100-9,300 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon at 9,300-9,600 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous day. Yesterday, the futures market fluctuated rangebound near 8,600 yuan/mt and closed at 8,625 yuan/mt late in the session, down 45 yuan/mt from the previous close. Affected by market and macro sentiment, futures prices fluctuated sharply, while downstream inquiries were weak and market transactions were mainly for just-in-time demand. Silicon metal prices faced resistance on the upside and were supported by costs on the downside.

Production:

According to SMM data, domestic silicon metal production in February fell 26.6 MoM and 5% YoY. Considering the impact of the number of days, the average daily production in February was down about 19% from January. On the supply side, some capacity resumed production in March, and average daily silicon metal production in March was expected to increase about 12% MoM.

Inventory:

Social inventory: SMM statistics showed that as of February 26, social inventory of silicon metal in major regions totaled 560,000 mt, an increase of 3,000 mt from before the Chinese New Year. (Excluding Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, and other regions).

Silicone

Prices

DMC: Yesterday's transaction price was 14,000-14,300 yuan/mt, stable MoM. After the increase last week, current prices were mainly largely stable. Market transactions were mainly just-in-time procurement. In addition, regarding export orders, some producers were still prioritizing the production schedule for delivery of export orders, but as the implementation date for the cancellation of the export tax rebate policy drew closer, export-order support was expected to weaken in mid-to-late March.

D4: Yesterday's quoted price was 14,100-15,000 yuan/mt, stable MoM.

107 silicone rubber: Yesterday's quoted price was 14,500-15,100 yuan/mt, stable MoM.

Raw rubber: Yesterday's quoted price was 14,900-15,300 yuan/mt, stable MoM.

Silicone oil: Yesterday's quoted price was 15,500-16,100 yuan/mt, stable MoM.

Production:

With overall weekly operating rates remaining relatively stable, overall supply was relatively stable.

Inventory:

Supported by presale orders, inventory levels at most individual enterprises remained relatively low.

Polysilicon

Price:

Quotes for N-type recharging polysilicon were yuan/kg 44.7-53. Polysilicon prices fell sharply recently, mainly affected by wafer price cuts and market sentiment. At present, some manufacturers continued to lower polysilicon prices, and some small-volume orders were concluded at lower market prices. Market sentiment remained bearish.

Production

In March, some small enterprises currently had plans to start operations, coupled with an increase in calendar days, and polysilicon production is expected to increase to some extent. At present, there had been no major changes in operations among top-tier enterprises.

Inventory:

This week, polysilicon inventory continued to rise. The current market was relatively chaotic. Although trading frequency recovered somewhat after the Chinese New Year, it remained relatively sluggish, and inventory rose slightly.

Wafer

Price

Market prices for 18X wafers were 1.05-1.05 yuan/piece, 210RN wafers 1.13-1.15 yuan/piece, and 210N wafers 1.35-1.38 yuan/piece. Low-end prices for 18X and 210N wafers were still edging down slightly, while 210RN wafer prices remained temporarily stable. The strengthening trend in cell demand was gradually being transmitted to the wafer segment.

Production

Wafer production in March increased by about 10.71, mainly due to an increase in calendar days. According to the survey, apart from three enterprises that actually cut production, the rest mainly increased output. Market toll processing orders increased and showed a trend toward greater concentration.

Inventory

Wafer enterprise inventory began to decline. After cell enterprises finalized their March production schedules, demand was stronger than supply, driving the wafer segment toward destocking.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Price

Current domestic prices were 50,000-55,000 yuan/mt for inner layer quartz sand, 20,000-25,000 yuan/mt for middle layer sand, and 13,000-20,000 yuan/mt for outer layer sand. Imported high-purity quartz sand was priced at 70,000-73,000 yuan/mt. Prices for 33-inch quartz crucibles were 6,000-6,300 yuan/piece, and prices for 36-inch quartz crucibles were 7,200-7,300 yuan/piece. The price ranges for inner layer quartz sand and 33-inch crucibles were adjusted.

Production

In February, quartz sand enterprises were expected to maintain a slight reduction in planned production, and domestic high-purity quartz sand enterprises formulated production plans to match wafer demand through production cuts.

Inventory

At the beginning of 2026, crucible enterprises made reasonable purchases based on wafer planned production, and quartz sand inventory levels continued to increase.