Silicon Metal Prices Fluctuated and Consolidated, Polysilicon Enterprises Raised Quotations [SMM Silicon Industry Weekly Review]

SMM Feb. 5: Silicon Metal: Spot silicon metal prices were basically stable this week, with individual grades rising slightly. Futures price fluctuations widened, and the most-traded contract trended lower on Thursday, dragged down by macro and capital sentiment. As of Feb. 5, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,300-9,400 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt WoW; #441 silicon was at 9,400-9,600 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt WoW; #3303 silicon was at 10,200-10,500 yuan/mt, flat WoW. In the futures market, the most-traded contract moved volatilely, trending downward on Thursday. The weekly high was 9,010 yuan/mt, and the low was 8,600 yuan/mt. After the futures decline, some buy orders from traders and downstream users were executed.

Demand side, the weekly operating rate for polysilicon remained stable; for the full month of February, polysilicon enterprises are expected to mainly maintain stable operations. The weekly operating rate for silicone enterprises declined slightly MoM, mainly due to production cuts at a monomer plant in Inner Mongolia; for the full month of February, the operating rate for silicone monomer enterprises is expected to weaken slightly. The operating rate for aluminum-silicon alloy enterprises was weak; for the full month of February, the operating rate for primary aluminum alloy is expected to be basically stable, while that for secondary aluminum alloy is expected to decline due to factors such as the Chinese New Year break.

Pre-Chinese New Year stockpiling by downstream users has basically ended. Recent spot transactions were mostly for cargo pick-up after the holiday. Next week, spot traders will gradually enter the Chinese New Year holiday mode, with road transport capacity significantly decreasing around the Minor New Year. The spot silicon metal trading atmosphere was sluggish before the holiday. Subsequent attention will be paid to the pace of post-holiday production resumptions and silicon metal supply changes.

Polysilicon: This week's polysilicon price index was 52.6 yuan/kg. N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 48.2-59 yuan/kg, and granular polysilicon was quoted at 49-51 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices recovered somewhat this week. Over the weekend, polysilicon producers held relevant meetings to discuss anti-involution and cost issues, coupled with expectations for the industry conference on Feb. 5. Some leading polysilicon producers raised their offers, with the highest reaching 63 yuan/kg. However, downstream resistance to high-priced resources was evident. As polysilicon producers raised offers, upstream and downstream expected prices to settle around the low 50s yuan. The realization of subsequent transactions depends on the conference outcomes.

Wafer: Wafer prices held steady this week. N-type 183 wafers were priced at 1.2-1.25 yuan/piece, 210R wafers were quoted at 1.3-1.35 yuan/piece, and 210mm wafers were quoted at 1.5-1.55 yuan/piece. The main reason for the largely stable wafer prices this week was the "rising raw material costs and weakening demand." Specifically, recent price increases quoted by upstream polysilicon enterprises, coupled with the recalculation of costs during the Beijing meetings on the 4th and 5th, fueled the upward trend in raw material costs. Meanwhile, battery enterprises saw their quotes pull back due to the sharp drop in silver prices, leading to an overall weakening of market demand. In summary, wafer enterprises faced a dilemma: hastily following the price increases could result in a situation where prices rise without corresponding market demand. Therefore, in the short term, wafer enterprises are still formulating follow-up strategies, and prices remained largely stable for now.

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