SMM Analysis on China November Refined Nickel Production and December Forecast 

In November 2024, the national production of refined nickel increased by 0.4% MoM and 33.64% YoY. The industry's monthly operating rate was 71.53%, basically flat compared to the previous month. Throughout the month, the national production of refined nickel saw a slight increase MoM, mainly driven by the continuous production expansion of top-tier enterprises.

In November, the macro disturbances caused by Trump's inauguration and the US Fed's interest rate cut led to some favourable macro sentiment, which was successfully reflected in the futures market. However, the continuous inventory buildup both domestically and internationally, the loosening of Indonesian nickel ore premiums and prices in December, and the ongoing production expansion by top-tier refined nickel enterprises created a significantly bearish fundamentals outlook. The favourable macro factors were quickly digested multiple times, resulting in overall volatile nickel prices. Looking ahead, export profitability still has considerable room for growth. Enterprises with overseas delivery qualifications are likely to continue increasing production to seize profitable opportunities. It is expected that in December 2024, the national production of refined nickel will increase by 2.4% MoM and 27.68% YoY.