US macro data lower-than-expected; SHFE aluminum fluctuated and fell overnight [SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary Oct 31]

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2412 contract opened at 20,810 yuan/mt, with a high of 20,835 yuan/mt and a low of 20,720 yuan/mt, closing at 20,730 yuan/mt, down 85 yuan/mt from the previous close, a decrease of 0.41%. Trading volume was 42,500 lots, open interest was 204,000 lots, with a daily reduction of 2,804 lots. Yesterday, LME aluminum opened at $2,660.5/mt, reached a high of $2,677.5/mt, a low of $2,612.5/mt, and closed at $2,615/mt, down $45/mt, a decrease of 1.69%.

Summary: On the macro front, domestic policies continue to boost the economy, global market liquidity is ample, but the possibility of a ceasefire in the Middle East brings new variables to macro sentiment. On the fundamentals side, the bauxite supply crisis has led to a significant increase in alumina prices, and the cost of the aluminum industry has risen noticeably. Overall, current aluminum ingot spot inventory destocking continues, while the cost side supports aluminum prices to fluctuate at a relatively high level.