2024 National Day Holiday Copper Processing Enterprises Holiday Survey - Copper Tubes [SMM Analysis]

As the National Day holiday approaches, copper prices have surpassed 79,000 yuan/mt. How are copper tube enterprises managing their stocking pace and orders?

According to the survey, copper tube enterprises will have holidays ranging from 0 to 5 days. Large enterprises (annual capacity ≥ 300,000 mt) are generally in active production, with different bases arranging 1-2 days off based on order conditions. According to ChinaIOL data, domestic air conditioner production schedules in October are up 5.2% from last year's domestic sales performance, with exports up 51% YoY. Under strong production schedule expectations, some enterprises reported an increase in orders starting at the end of September, with most stocking completed in the last week of September. Some enterprises still needed to purchase copper cathode on September 30 due to sufficient orders. Small and medium-sized enterprises will have holidays of 3-5 days. After the rise in copper prices, these enterprises face financial pressure and limited growth in new orders, allowing workers to take holidays.

Observing order changes, since the main downstream of copper tube enterprises is the refrigeration industry, especially air conditioner tube clients, with excellent air conditioner production schedules this year, October production is expected to increase 2-10% YoY, with a few enterprises showing a YoY decrease. October operations are expected to grow 2-10% MoM from September. From this survey, there is no significant reduction in October orders compared to September.