In July, Indonesia's NPI exports fell by about 5.7% MoM, with Germany and Japan added as new export destinations [SMM Analysis]

According to the Directorate General of Customs and Excise, the total export volume of Indonesian NPI in July 2024 was approximately 731,200 mt in physical content, down about 5.7% MoM and 3.1% YoY. Exports to China totaled about 666,000 mt, down 3.2% MoM and 9.7% YoY. From January to July 2024, cumulative exports to China were about 5.0144 million mt, up approximately 15.3% MoM and 16.9% YoY.

Regarding export destinations, Germany and Japan were added as new destinations for Indonesian NPI exports in July, with export volumes of 27 and 0.003 mt, respectively. Indonesia now exports to 12 countries and regions, including China, China Taiwan, India, South Korea, the Netherlands, Turkey, the UK, Malaysia, South Africa, Italy, Germany, and Japan, further expanding its NPI trade reach. European mainstream stainless steel mills previously used ferronickel as their primary nickel raw material. However, with the global nickel supply surplus in recent years, LME and SHFE nickel prices have fluctuated downward, severely impacting traditional ferronickel smelters. Many have shut down due to sustained losses, and those still operating maintain low operating rates, leading to an imbalance in ferronickel supply for overseas mainstream stainless steel mills. On the other hand, Indonesia, with its significant laterite nickel ore reserves, has a notable cost advantage in producing NPI through pyrometallurgical methods compared to other countries. Indonesian NPI capacity has been rapidly expanding. According to an SMM survey, despite the tight nickel ore resources caused by Indonesia's RKAB policy, total production in 2024 is still expected to increase by about 18.95% YoY. In summary, driven by Indonesia's cost advantages, the supply increase is expected to allow NPI to gradually replace ferronickel in the global stainless steel raw material structure.

Looking at the cumulative exports to other destinations excluding China, from January to July 2024, exports to India reached about 122,300 mt, up 55.7% MoM and 136.9% YoY; those to South Korea reached about 60,800 mt, up 52.8% MoM and 86.7% YoY; those to China Taiwan reached about 31,200 mt, up 1.2% MoM and 80.7% YoY; to the Netherlands reached about 43,400 mt; to the UK reached about 22,900 mt; to Malaysia reached about 200 mt; to South Africa reached about 600 mt; and to Italy reached about 21,100 mt.