As the supply in the tin market gradually tightens, tin prices may fluctuate upward [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes]

In the past two months, the number of applications for car trade-in subsidies has surged. As of noon on August 22, the Ministry of Commerce's car trade-in information platform had received over 680,000 applications for car retirement and renewal subsidies. The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council have decided to use ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to more robustly support the trade-in policy in the consumer sector. Internationally, the preliminary value of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI in August fell to 48, hitting an eight-month low and far below the expected 49.5. The market is closely watching Fed Chairman Powell's speech tonight, hoping he will provide clear guidance on the US Fed's future rate cut path. On the domestic supply side, in July, China's tin ore imports rebounded, mainly due to increased imports from Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of Congo, while imports from other countries remained stable. Although the authorities in Wa State, Myanmar, have not yet clarified the resumption time of tin ore production, based on current market analysis and forecasts, the import volume of Myanmar tin ore in Q3 is expected to remain at a relatively low level. Since the suspension of production in Myanmar, the proportion of tin ore from Africa and other regions in the total domestic import volume has continued to rise, and this trend is expected to continue and remain stable for some time. Historical data shows that tin ore imports from the Democratic Republic of Congo and Australia have reached historical highs, partially compensating for the market supply gap caused by Myanmar's mining ban. However, the tight supply situation has already begun to emerge, and supply pressure is expected to increase further. Against this backdrop, the gradual tightening of supply in the tin market is likely to become an important factor driving tin prices higher. In summary, considering Powell's speech and the domestic supply situation, we expect tin prices to fluctuate upward.