SMM China July Refined Nickel Production and August Forecast

In July 2024, China's refined nickel production reached 28,900 mt, up 8.2% MoM and 33.87% YoY, largely in line with expectations. Previously, nickel producers that had reduced or halted production due to raw material shortages gradually resumed normal production, and their capacity was smoothly released, now nearing full production. Additionally, some newly commissioned electro-deposited nickel capacity in Q2 began to come into effect. Furthermore, due to the earlier expansion of the price spread between domestic and overseas markets, the increased production from nickel producers in East China was stable in July, leading to a significant increase in refined nickel production compared to June.

In August 2024, China's refined nickel production is expected to slightly decrease to 28,400 mt, a slight decline from July. According to the SMM survey, nickel prices in August still fluctuated at low levels, the price spread between domestic and overseas markets narrowed, and the opening of the import window reduced export profits. Therefore, domestic nickel plate exports are expected to further decline. Additionally, due to losses amid low nickel prices, the production ramp-up of newly commissioned nickel plate production lines in Q2 slowed down, with production increases expected to be evident in Q3 and Q4. Due to planned equipment maintenance at a large refined nickel producer in Northwest China, nickel plate production in August is expected to decrease. Overall, refined nickel production in August 2024 is expected to show a downward trend.